With less than 2 months till the Latin American Tour and with three more rounds of elections in my backyard, there’s more pressure on my time than ever. The first two episodes of the Khmer Tour are now out, while in the background I’m working at the next Podcast, all while hunting intra-South-American flights to navigate less than 3 months ago. It’s… crowded.
And amid this, I just got the 200th (?!) message asking when I’ll do X country. So why not explain why and when that will (not) happen? So, without further ado:
The criteria
The following don’t have to be met simultaneously, but at least some will have to be met for me to consider – especially if I’m going to involve y’all.
- Accessible and free enough. Some countries are simply inaccessible – like Algeria. The procedure to get in is so much of a headache that it’s simply not worth bothering. Then there are countries that are somewhat accessible but simply not free enough – like Turkmenistan or North Korea. By “free enough” I mean be able to walk around and talk to people. It doesn’t have to be a liberal democracy (I’ve done 4 autocracies in a row in the last 2 years and this year I’ll do a hybrid regime and an underdeveloped dangerous democracy) – but it has to be free enough that I don’t have to ask for approval every 3 minutes.
- Tolerable levels of danger. Well, this one is subjective. I went to Ukraine several times since the beginning of the war – but it’s Ukraine. A place that I know really well and know how to navigate in any circumstance. Meanwhile, in theory, Iraq these days is less dangerous than Ukraine. But, in practice, I wouldn’t do Iraq today, even though I’d really like to (more on that later).
- Past totalitarian experience or present authoritarian experience. Self explanatory – almost all in the last decade fit this one.
- Reasonably priced. Of course, this is relative, but resources aren’t infinite either. And that includes time, not just money. For instance, a trip to India may really not be too expensive, but it would require 2 months at the very least. That’s a “price” too steep. Alternatively, I’d have to settle for a casual and common type of thing which would last less but would also defeat the purpose. Every series like this is meant to intentionally go where most don’t (and not just geographically).
- Preferably less touristy. Where everyone goes, I don’t want to go. Sometimes that’s unavoidable, but most of the time it’s easy. If one wants touristy stuff, this isn’t the place.
- Is or has been in the news recently. Sweden 2020 and Ecuador 2024 fit this one nicely. Sometimes the opportunity arises to go beyond the headlines in a way most can’t or won’t.
- Preferably next to a country I’ve never been. Whenever there’s two countries involved, one of them has to be a country that I know and have been to in the past. The reason is simple: Escape route. See 20 tips for solo travelers. This is particularly important for places that are far away from Europe and far away from a friendly embassy. If things go rough, it may be impossible to fly back to Europe on a whim (even if budget is available), but running to the neighboring country is usually possible even in the most dire circumstances. Ideally, I must know the neighboring country to a certain extent.
There are also some smaller ones that may tilt the balance but, by and large, the criteria above is how I make the decision.
And this makes it easy to list what’s possible in the future.
What I hope to be possible soon
Myanmar. The junta there is losing ground in the civil war. I’m seriously hoping to be able to do Myanmar in 2026. It will make for one hell of a series of stories (especially after you hear the Khmer Series). The recent history of Burma/Myanmar is, politically speaking, crazy. In a way that very few other places can compare.
Vietnam. Ideally, in conjunction with Myanmar. Some issues about Vietnam are/will be discussed in the Khmer Series – but the logical conclusion will be getting there. However, I wouldn’t go just to ‘Nam. But ‘Nam as backup while exploring post-junta Myanmar? Sign me up!
Iraq. I was just going to settle for Iraq for 2024 but in August 2023 the security situation went insane again. Quite unfortunate because Baghdad is one of the ancient cities of the world and it’s so full of stories that nobody is telling. Besides, the politics of Iraq is in itself fascinating to study. If things don’t improve by the end of the decade, I’ll probably try some surrogate – like paying for some of the contacts to show up in Türkiye or something. We’ll see what happens.
Ethiopia. I’ve been there several times but exploring Ethiopia more deeply is something I’ve been craving for a long while. And finally, when the opportunity was clear,… a civil war broke out. The security situation right now is still pretty bad. Sure, not extreme, but I don’t have a known country around. Ethiopia is the known country. I was hoping to connect with Djibouti (with the CCP clown train) and maybe dabble a bit into the stories of the Yemeni refugees there. The potential for greatness of such a series is self-evident. Hopefully I live long enough to actually make it.
Senegal. This place is rarely in the news. Mostly because it doesn’t fit the stereotype. Senegal had a profound constitutional crisis last year and throughout the first months of 2024. But, unlike most others in the region, the (previously thought of as) fragile democracy survived. And that is one of the reasons it’s politically interesting here. The bottom-up struggles to keep the balance of power is not the kind of story you expect to hear from West-Africa.
Mali. This was under consideration for 2025 but then Wagner PMC showed up in Mali. And then more Islamist separatists. And then more clusterfuck. So… for now… Mali will have to wait. At least in terms of exploring with a camera.
El Salvador & Guatemala. This will probably be 2026, tbh. El Salvador is in the news for its eccentric but so far really effective president and Guatemala is also a story of a country that cleaned itself up but whose story didn’t shine through the news. They’re well connected to each other and it’s doable.
Argentina. Ideally, I’d do Argentina in 2027 or 2028. After all, the reason people write to me to do Argentina is the Milei administration. Well… in politics the effects are not immediate. It would make for a more comprehensive story (positive or negative – we don’t know yet) if a bit more time passes. Javier Milei has been in power for just 8 months. Let’s give him time before making any pronouncements.
Chile. In the past, Chile had a reputation of being expensive. But… not anymore. The Pinochetian history alone makes it worthwhile, but also the current politics of Chile is full of quirks that the global news barely scratched the surface on. Hopefully this one will be possible – though I admit it’s not a priority.
Indonesia. Almost 12 million people visited Indonesia in 2023. Almost 95% of them went to one single place – Bali. But Indonesia is also the largest Muslim country in the world. 1 in 7 Muslims in the world is Indonesian. As the biggest demographic player in dar al Islam, Indonesia’s recent history is key to understanding where the Islamic civilization is heading towards. And that matters given that it’s the fastest growing religion and will remain so for the rest of the century.
Bosnia. Not a priority, but one day I’ll have to do this. The politics of Bosnia is a level of clownery even most Europeans have no idea of.
What I’d love, but won’t happen
In Romania there is a say: Beautiful country, too bad it’s inhabited/governed. Well… there are quite a few of those in the world.
Iran. That’s a place I won’t explore with a camera as long as the Islamic Republic exists. But should that fall, forget about the lists. I’m in the next flight to Tehran!
Russia. Haven’t been there in a long while. And I doubt I’ll go anytime soon. But if not for the insane federal government, there are several portions of Russia that are in fact beautiful and have great local stories. The area round Lake Baikal would be great to visit without the current regime. Left to their own devices, the people there can be quite lovely. And their stories… oh man… their stories. I could just leave the camera on and chat for a few hours with a few locals over some booze. Without the censorship and fear, such a thing would make for mindblowing videos. Same thing: if the current iteration of russia goes out… I’m heading there.
DPRK. Self-explanatory. If the regime in Pyongyang falls, I’m there soon after. It won’t be cheap, but it will be history. Realistically, I have more chances at doing Russia than DPRK. But let’s hope I’m wrong 🙏🏻
Sudan and South Sudan. The politics of that region is even crazier than Myanmar. But, unlike Myanmar, there’s a slim chance I’ll live long enough for these two to be good enough for visiting.
Venezuela. In fact, if the Maduro regime had fallen this week, I would’ve switched Ecuador for Venezuela right now. That didn’t happen so… Venezuela will have to wait. Still,… doing an immediately post-communist country is something that I hope to live long enough to do. The Chavistas have been in power for about the same amount of time as Ceaușescu so… it’ll be pretty comparable.
What’s unlikely but doable
India. I get a query about India at least 5 times a year. Doing India would require 2 or 3 months. Not only because it’s a huge place, but also because over the years I worked with a lot of fine Indians and if they’d find out I stepped foot in their country and didn’t make contact with them, they’ll be upset. But the cost of doing India right is simply too high and will remain too high for many years to come. Even if all the expenses were to be covered, being on the other side of the planet for 3 months is a hard ask. I’d do it. But… not now.
Brazil. Navigating Brazil is crazily expensive. With the cost of doing 3 weeks in Brazil I can do something bigger, nicer and more profound somewhere else. Including somewhere else in Latin America.
Saudi Arabia. Maybe after 2035 😂. Let’s just leave it at that.
China (PRC). Seriously, stop querying me about this. It ain’t happening. Unless this happens. Though even then I’d be reluctant. Too big of a place.
Of course, I didn’t cover everything but, by and large, that’s the thinking process right now. Of course, all of it could change depending on so many factors – from sudden political change, outbreak (or stopping) of a war and, of course, the opinions of the Donors’ Circle.
So… to honor the title…
O’zbekiston-Tojikiston 2025
The Central Asia Series brought more diverse and far more interesting feedback than I expected. Meanwhile… I ran out of footage for quite a few other stories and facets.
So… since I now know the place, why not finish the story?
The idea is to hit what I missed in Uzbekistan – namely Khiva, Nukus (Karakalpakstan), Andijan and Namangan. The latter two being of interest as the intellectual origin of several Islamist groups, the political point of origin of the Karimov regime and the current focal point of bilateral economic development with… Tadjikistan.
Tadjikistan has gotten in the news lately for allegedly banning the hijab. But… not really. It’s… quite a bit more complicated. Still… to get to videotape in practice what an attempt at Kemalization looks like in a Persian(!) nation… that’s a once in a lifetime opportunity.
Financially, this should be viable fairly easily. Logistically… er… I’ll figure something out, as always. The language barrier will be an issue too. But, by and large, getting back to Central Asia is just good policy at this point, all things considered.
Also, it will be quite relevant to see how the unfolding of Russia’s war will have changed things by next autumn. Not just to test hypotheses/predictions but also to see the effects. I betcha they’ll be noticeable. Especially in the north-east of O’zbekiston and in Dushanbe.
Oh… and Tajikistan may have a new leader by then. Who knows? Maybe I catch the inauguration.
Either way, there’s more stories in these two countries that I haven’t had the chance to tell. And given your feedback, I’ll head out to find ways to tell them.
So… yeah. That’s a rough estimate on what calculations are going on in the background when making such decisions. I’m not complaining. It’s a good problem to have. After all, it will soon be 10 years (!) of the Sofa. That in itself is a good problem to have.
But what I am saying is that every time I’m being asked “when X country/place” the answer is… well… it’s a bit more complicated than that. So I just provided the basics of the process. Hopefully that clears things up a little bit.
So… with that said, I’ll head back to work. In the meantime, please consider supporting the Colombia-Ecuador tour. I’ve gotten all the flights but it’s still in doubt all the objectives on the list are doable, given the current state of the fundraiser. Every dollar counts!
See ya soon.
