A year of sanctions. How’s it going?

At the beginning of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, multiple countries (and not just Western ones) imposed various types of sanctions on the Russian economy. The imposition of the sanctions’ regime was relatively well executed but very poorly communicated to the public.

The public was told (or was given the impression) that the Russian economy would collapse within months because it’s the toughest sanctions regime ever imposed on a country. The latter part was absolutely correct, but the former was clearly not entirely honest.

As a result, the public’s trust in the sanctions regime was needlessly shaken due to the high expectations – leading some to lean on exaggeration in the other direction, so far as to believe Putin’s claims that the sanctions had little or no effect. That’s also wrong. So, how’s it going?

Withdrawal of major companies

For once, someone in Academia actually did something useful for the public. So the Chief Executive Leadership Institute from the Yale School of Management went into the enormous undertaking of actually tracking down all of the big non-Russian corporations with business in Russia to see if they actually do make any move as (so many of them) promised.

1586 companies ended up on Yale’s list which gets upgraded at least once a week (last update on February 26, 2023), graded from A (complete exit from Russia) to F (digging in).

The result? 521 companies fully exited Russia (grade A) and another 500 curtailed most or all operations (grade B). On the opposite end of the spectrum, 238 companies either continue as normal or are actively expanding in Russia (“digging in” – grade F).

This in itself is extraordinary. Over 2/3 success rate in fact beats the previous attempt at a global boycott, which happened against Apartheid South Africa 35 years ago.

With that said, there is still room for improvement. There are many companies from Austria, G*rmany, France, Italy, the USA or the United Kingdom that are on the “grade F” list.

Cloudflare, Buzzi Unicem (Italy), BT Group (UK) or Doka (Austria) are some of the Western companies that are still operating in Russia that can still be… persuaded into no longer doing so.

Industry

The automobile production in Russia took a nosedive by 67% – and that’s according to Rosstat (the official Russian Statistic Institute, hardly a trustworthy source). The Russian automobile plants churned out 450.000 cars in 2022, according to Kommersant. That’s less than Romania, whose plants churned out 507.000 cars in 2022, which is not a record for Romania. Keep in mind that of those ~450k cars produced in 2022, quite a few of them are Soviet-era Moskvich which we don’t even know if they work.

75% of car-related transactions in Russia are of used cars, mostly second or third-hand from Japan. The overall number of transactions and production are lower than the 2009 global financial crisis.

To make things worse, there are no chips for anything. Russian leadership hoped to replace what they can’t get from the West by buying from China. There’s just one problem: the Chinese-supplied chips have an enormous failure rate. 40% of the chips delivered to Russia are defective. Such a failure rate makes any sensible production planning impossible. And the goods that are produced with the non-defective ones, obviously, end up being more expensive.

Other industries are under all sorts of weird pressures. So, for instance, Russia can produce its own steel, right? Well, yes, but… some raw materials used to be sourced from Kazakhstan. But Kazakhstan is no longer willing to sell. So the Russian plants now have to source it from within Russia but from further away from the plants (geographically speaking).

Speaking of Kazakhstan, the country bounces between refusing to sell steel to Russia to selling enormous amounts at dumping prices – distorting the Russian market in unpredictable ways. This is reported by Kommersant, which can’t be suspected of a pro-sanctions or anti-Russia bias.

Workforce

The Mayor of Moscow wrote in an official blogpost that things will get rough as hundreds of thousands of people are simply left with nothing to do in the city as everything relevant for them is closed or will be closed. That was in April 2022. Since then, the mayor has been subjected to a special persuasion operation to shut up about it. Even so… the numbers he presented were still real.

In response to multiple such situations (not just in Moscow) the government responded by trying really hard to absorb as many people as possible into various furlough schemes, fake or real government jobs or early retirement. Sure, over the short run, this eases the tension. But for how long can this be sustained? And who funds it? (more on that in a bit)

Nobody really knows how many people left Russia. According to research by The Bell, at least 512,000 people left Russia and did not come back (as of December 2022). This number is the most conservative estimate and most likely wrong, given that just Kazakhstan reported a bit over 200,000 border crossings one way (from Russia to Kazakhstan) without any returns.

Whatever number you choose to believe, one thing is certain: Almost all of the people that left are resourceful (and thus a lost tax base for the State).

This exodus (called “relocation” on Russian groups) strained the public resources of Georgia in particular but, eventually, slowly, things settled down on the host countries. Keep in mind that the exodus isn’t over. The industrial park in Tashkent (empty at my visit there in August 2022) is now full. With “relocated” Russians. After all, someone’s gotta fix the thermal energy distribution of the city, which is in dire straits, so why not fighting age Russian men?

Finance

In late August of 2022 I wrote an article about how unimportant is the official exchange rate of the Rouble given that it’s not a convertible currency. Since then, one thing has changed: Now nobody can exchange Roubles at anywhere near the “official” rate. Not even Raiffeisen Bank, which even went as far as to recognize Putin’s republics, can’t exchange Roubles at the official rate. Raiffeisen is now under an OFAC investigation in the USA. Insh’Allah they get sanctioned.

But, Raiffeisen notwithstanding, the fact remains that nobody buys Roubles. Which means the current “official” exchange rate is wholly artificial and meaningless.

And since nobody buys Roubles, that means nobody is buying Russian bonds either. So how is Putin financing the enormous deficits? Well… the foreign currency reserves. According to the Central Bank of Russia, the state consumed between 7 and 11 billion dollars worth of foreign currency per week. That sounds bad, but not so bad.

Just one problem: All of the statistics officers from both Rosstat and Банк России have been replaced at least three times since the onset of the war. Before the war, they used to be replaced every 6 years or so.

Energy

Here’s where things are a bit more complicated than both the West and Russia are willing to admit.

The EU countries “sold” the sanctions to their people as relatively easy to implement. The practice showed that it was a bit more complicated than previously thought. With that said, all things considered, things turned out quite okay. Europe didn’t freeze to death and, compared to other historical energy crises, countries of Europe fared better than expected.

Russia, on the other hand, “sold” to its people the message that Europe can’t decouple from Russia and that, if things really go south, there’s always India and China eager to buy in huge amounts as both countries are big consumers of fossil fuels.

Just one problem: Saying so is easier said than done.

It takes at least 6 years to build the necessary pipelines in order to deliver gas to China or India. So far, not a single centimeter of a new pipeline has been built. Translation: Russian isn’t selling excess gas to Asia. It can’t.

On oil, the logistics are easier, but India and China put a downward pressure on the price. Or, in common parlance, Russia is selling oil to India and China at a steep discount and routinely at a loss.

You see, extracting oil is not rocket science but it’s still a technologically complex process if you want to also be able to deliver it at a competitive price. And a year of sanctions and the departure of Western energy companies (and with them, their know-how) is taking its toll. Russia’s production price is now higher than the global norm. And continue to climb up as installations start to break down and fixing them is no longer that easy as it was in January 2022.

Ironically, it is in fact desirable that India and China continue to buy more and more oil from Russia at higher and higher discounts because, in doing so, it makes Russia lose money at an accelerated pace. And I have no doubt that’s exactly what’s going to continue to happen because China has no qualms in pillaging Russia for its natural resources.

What we don’t know

Russia stopped filing its paperwork with the IMF, the World Bank, the ITO and other institutions in July and hasn’t allowed the minimum scrutiny required ever since. In parallel, Russian ethnics within the IMF replaced the missing data with the reports from the Kremlin (unverified, even minimally, by anyone). This led to the IMF, World Bank et. al. to publish effectively Kremlin propaganda for months on end.

The situation has been discovered mostly by accident basically last week and hasn’t been corrected yet. So any report from IMF, World Bank, etc. on the GDP of Russia or any other economic data is, for the time being, untrustworthy.

Same goes for the Rosstat reports on some aspects of the economy (especially labor force and demographics) for the second half of the year 2022. the people working on them have been changed/reshuffled at least three times in the last 12 months. That’s a lot.

Even if we were to presume this was not done in order to get yes-men apparatchiks in place, that would twist the numbers to lie for the Kremlin – the mere disruption in the workflow is enough to render the reports for the second half of 2022 at least untrustworthy until further rectification. And there is no reason to assume any of that.

So when Putin says the Russian economy fell by 2.1% in 2022, there is no way to check whether that’s true. Same goes when a Western analyst says that it actually fell by X%. That guy doesn’t know that either. We have some reliable data (I presented some of it above) but we’re still missing quite a bit on other variables in order to make a semi-decent projection.

Some conclusions

So, do the sanctions work? If by “work” you mean the way they were sold to the public in March 2022, then the answer is no.

However, if by “work” one means “steadily and consistently eating away at the economical foundations of the modern part of the Russian economy” – then the answer is yes. Faster than I expected, quite honestly.

I had expected that inertia will take 15 months at the very least to catch up but, as it turns out, many aspects worked-out faster.

Imposing sanctions was a good idea, all in all. But it was a mistake to sell them to the public as a silver bullet against Russia, because such framing needlessly lowered the Western public’s trust in them and gave free talking points to Solovyov et. al. for no benefit.

Luckily, for all of us, the quality of Russian propaganda also took a nosedive lately. And visibly so for anyone who has been following this topic for more than three years. It could be because some of the people at RT and other places were in fact Ukrainian and are now refugees in Kazakhstan.

And while I’m glad that Russian propaganda took a nosedive, it is alarming that the West’s strategic communication is in such a terrible shape. Слава Богу we’re facing Russia of 2023 and not Russia of 2014 in the propaganda department.

Fund the South-East Asia communism Tour of 2023

Created using the Donation Thermometer plugin https://wordpress.org/plugins/donation-thermometer/.$4,000Raised $2,735 towards the $4,000 target.$2,735$2,000$3,750Raised $2,735 towards the $4,000 target.68%

In 2016 we went to Ukraine. In 2017 we went to Georgia and Armenia. In 2018 to Jordan and Israel. In 2019 to Zimbabwe, in 2021 to Moldova and in 2022 to Central Asia. All have in common a recent history of having been influenced (or outright conquered) by the Soviet Union. Additionally, over the years, we also went to Albania (2018), Germany (2019), Sweden (2020) and Bulgaria (2021) without making a fundraiser for it – but those places were also chosen for their totalitarian recent past.

So in keeping with this tradition of gathering knowledge and wisdom and then delivering it to you as stories, we submit to y’all the proposal for a South East Asia Tour dubbed as either ”The Khmer Empire Tour of 2023” in order to avoid algorithmic suppression on social media or, more honestly, the ”Killing Fields Tour 2023” since what we’ll really study is the brutal totalitarian past of Cambodia and Laos.

The video above goes a bit into the itinerary and the minimum things to expect from this tour.

This article is focused on the financial details. Not all expenses are thoroughly detailed – only those funded through the fundraiser.

So, without further ado…

For consistency, all expenses are converted in USD at the median exchange rate for the period between February 1 and February 15, 2023. This is also because all donations are converted to USD as it’s the working currency for almost all operations of this Network.

In places where there is price variation (e.g. flights and trains within Cambodia and Laos) – the maximal option is listed. The rest of the list represents the median/most likely costs.

1. Cluj Napoca – Viena (round trip)

Train: $100
Housing in Vienna: $70 [2 nights]
Food in Vienna: $50

2. Vienna – Phnom Penh

Flight: $1000 (round trip, all fares included)

3. Visa costs

$30 per entry. $90 in total, since one will have to enter Cambodia twice.

4. Housing and transport in Asia

~$20/night on average, no more than 30 nights, no less than 26 nights [to be decided depending on flight availability if the first goal is reached in time]

As such, budget for housing: $600
Phnom Penh – Vientiane – $350 (return flight)
Phnom Penh – Siem Reap train – $40 (return ticket)
Vientiane – Luang Prabang train – $60 (return ticket)

5. Phnom Penh, Cambodia

Video fees: $50
Books: $50
Food: $100
Coffee: $50
Transport within the city: $40

6. Siem Reap, Cambodia

Video fees: $50
Food: $70
Coffee: $30

7. Vientiane, Laos

Video fees: $20
Food: $70
Coffee: $20
Transport within the city: $30

8. Luang Prabang, Laos

Transport around the city: $40
Food: $50
Coffee: $15

9. Other

Health insurance: $45
Equipment insurance: $30
On-the-fly consumables (batteries, memory cards, etc): $80
Exchange rate fees: $100 (maximum)
Unexpected expenses: $450 (minimum)

Total: $3,750

This number represents the optimal in order for the tour to take place. The total cost may be higher, but not by much. The upper threshold will be placed at $4000.

Any excess will be redirected towards fulfilling the wishlist or towards funding another project in 2024.

Minimums and deadlines

The tour is due to take place sometime between in the month November and December and it will last no more than 35 days [including the 4 days needed to get from Cluj Napoca to Phnom Penh and back]. This means that plane tickets should be purchased no later than July 1, 2022. Update: All good

As such, if the fundraiser doesn’t reach to at least $1500 by May 25, 2022, the tour is cancelled and all collected funds redirected to other projects.

If the fundraiser doesn’t reach at least $2000 by June 25, 2022, the tour is cancelled and all collected funds redirected to other projects. Of course, if it will be $1890 on June 25, it will be fine. But too much leeway downwards will lead to cancellation – because by June 25, The expensive flights must be paid for already. Update: All good. The plan proceeds as promised.

Anything beyond $4000, as well as any remaining shekel after the tour, will be redirected towards other projects or to fulfilling the wishlist.

The state of the fundraiser will be updated regularly on the main page of the website and semi-regularly on the Youtube channels.

If this convinces you, head over to the Donate page and pitch in. Every dollar counts!

Street smarts remains essential

How do you know a topic is over and you won? Well, the opposition speaks your language and the head of a multi-million dollar media empire that dwarfs CNN, MSNBC, BBC and France24 together in terms of audience basically speaks the exact same words you’ve been speaking when you ushered in your own narrative.

Daily Wire is in top 10 largest podcast publishers (bigger than Disney!), in top 10 most widely read websites from the entire Internet and gobbles up 8 and sometimes 9 digits (!!) audience figures per day across platforms. In other words, Daily Wire is as mainstream as it can possibly be.

The video above, where Ben Shapiro (whose wife is a doctor – let’s not forget this 😂) speaks the language of the opposition effectively ends the conversation. So the pandemic project is over (even if you can still see pockets of Branch Covidianism on Twitter and Facebook). So, as this is slowly coming to an end, it’s time to ask, in all seriousness, what have we learned?

Reading back to the article I wrote at the beginning of this panic, almost three years ago, I have to say I’m sorry I was right on the 5th point. I was really hoping that I’d be proven wrong, and not too many little dictators would emerge. Unfortunately, human nature being what it is, things rolled more or less as I predicted. But the question is: How did I, and tens if not hundreds of millions of us across the Northern Hemisphere know?

No accident

I don’t have a Harvard Law education (thank God for that!) and my wife isn’t a doctor (Слава Богу for that too!) – and this remains true for every single individual who supported the Sofa message right from the get go.

Very well-educated and well-read men (and some women) are now coping with the fact that what they perceive as “the lesser” were entirely correct and they were wrong. Some are coping with it relatively honorably (by acknowledging they were wrong) while others maintain to this day that the rest of us simply got lucky. The latter category is worthy of scorn for many years to come, not only because they commit the sin of assuming shit but also because such hubris should be socially discouraged wherever possible.

We could’ve discussed luck if we had gotten one or two disparate things right while being just as wrong (or even more wrong) than the booksmart people. But that’s just not the case.

On everything – from survival rate, to the immorality, illegality and illiberalism of so-called NPIs, to the viability of the myocarditis-inducing experimental gene therapy clotshot… on everything we got things right, or at the very least closer to the truth than they did. That’s not a coincidence nor is it luck. It’s something else. Something that is now missing from those who profess to be thought leaders: street smarts.

Street smarts breed adaptable people

In the past, until the 1950s or even later, both the elite and the plebs had street smarts. In the past, the elites would speak 4-5 languages as a matter of routine, travel more or less with the plebs, and reality compelled them to learn how the world actually works once they step foot outside the reading room.

Now, however, most of these people live completely separate lives from the rest of us. In a very physical and concrete way. And that is to their detriment too.

Erika Fatland is the only writer that I’m aware of in contemporaneity that is both in the traditional elite chambers and still behaves like an elite used to. She makes good money off of investors and institutions for doing more or less what I do: travel the world by train with the plebs, speaking with the plebs rather than at them, and then report about it. Turns out the plebs are still willing to listen/read even a snob/elitist opinion as long as it comes from a place of authenticity (i.e. you’ve actually been there and know your stuff) – which is a nicer way of saying… having street smarts.

Us, the plebs, got the pandemic project right not necessarily because we were smarter (though in some cases that was the case too), nor because we were lucky. We got it right because we had a higher dose of a different type of smart.

Having street smarts is not just physical fighting skills and ability to manage difficult situations in an urban setting. Street smarts is also the ability to blend in with many different types of people.

By necessity or by choice, us plebs with street smarts didn’t stay in an physical or virtual silo during the pandemic project. We kept on talking to people who virulently disagree with us but also with people who probably agree with us a bit too much.

Street smarts does mean being able to assess risk. So for those with street smarts, it simply came natural not to freak out too much about the Wuhan Cough. It made sense not to automatically trust the “official sources” – precisely because down here, at the street level, we’d seen this movie before. We knew – not by luck, but by previous trial and error – that the official sources will lie if they’re required to do so or if they panic and get stupid in public.

Unlike the so-called “educated” we didn’t display the memory of a paramecium. So by September 2020, nearly 100% of the street smarts people had figured out most of the pandemic project. Face it: It wasn’t even hard. When you tell plebs that the Wuhan Flu spreads dangerously at the Church but not in crowded shopping malls, it doesn’t take a genius to figure out that something’s rotten.

The shock and horror of the book smarts people when they learned that the plebs will go around the mandatory vaccination with impunity (see Germany, France, Greece and Bulgaria, Italy, and so on) also showed just how out of touch these people are. I could go on more but you get the point.

Ideally, one would seek a balance between street smarts and book smarts. But, when such thing is not possible, then more street smarts is preferable for most people, since most of what constitutes street smarts used to be called common sense which, yeah, ain’t that common anymore.

Get the nerds back in the closet

So if there’s anything we can learn from the pandemic project in terms of reference points, it’s this: While books are good, touching grass is far better. And not being a terminally online NPC is highly helpful.

Ultimately, the pandemic project was a long, costly and painful experiment of a society ruled by nerds manipulated by pseudo-elites who wanted money and power (not necessarily in this order).

Face it: Most doctors are either corrupt bribery-receiving psychopaths or they are nerds. Neither category is fit to run society. Yet that’s exactly what the pandemic project attempted to do: to run society as if it’s a gigantic hospital ward with the sole purpose of preventing one disease.

Such dogmatic unidirectional focus and utter disregard for collateral damage (i.e. trade-offs) can be found in many people but it is overwhelmingly concentrated in just two categories: psychopaths and nerds.

And most of the people directly tormenting us for the last three years were nerds, not psychopaths. And without them, acting as enforcers, the pandemic project wouldn’t have been possible.

Think about it. Who tended to be the most Stakhanovite about the pandemic project? Corporate middle managers (nerds), hyperspecialized previously obscure Twitter accounts (nerds), terminally online antisocial IT folks (nerds) and the writers at “serious” newspapers (most of them nerds). Everyone else not in these categories dropped the pandemic project from their mind by September 2020.

Sure, we can quibble about exceptions and all that, but, by and large, the nerds were very good enforcers of the pandemic project without whom the project would’ve failed even earlier.

Some people still think this is something new. But it’s not. In 2009, Mexico went into lockdown for a flu. But in 2009, it was still acceptable to respond to those proposing such crap with the perfectly sensible reply of: “Shut up, nerd! Touch grass!”

I cannot stress enough just how big of a civilizational mistake it was to let the nerds out of the closet. It’s bad for society and it’s bad for nerds themselves too.

Can this geenie be put back in the bottle? I don’t know. But I do know that it’s worth a shot. Start by not taking nerds seriously and by avoiding as many activities associated with nerds as possible. It’s definitely a good start. Also, discourage your children from nerdy activities. Get him/her to play football/volleyball/whatever outside.

The takeaway is to continue to do what we, the street smarts people, got correctly right from the get go: Touch grass!

That’s it.

Understanding the Danish society

Denmark is often held as some sort of Utopia by the Western world due to its welfare state and highly homogeneous culture. Much has been said about not just the positives, but also more recently, by the political right, the negatives of such a system. However, neither side has ever truly understood what the pros and cons of the Danish way are, nor what type of society would accept it in the first place.

The Danish way of thinking is, in many ways, self-contradicting and it is just as hard to wrap one’s head around it as it is with the Russian mindset. This would have been more apparent, were it not for the complete absence of conflict within the Danish state.

All societies have a more or less formal contract with their state, some founding principle that makes it legitimate in the eyes of the people: In the US this is the upholding of the Constitution; in China – to avoid a repeat of the starvation events under Mao and ensure everyone has food on the table. In Denmark, it is simply to preserve a state of comfort.

While the same is true of the rest of Scandinavia, the Danish mindset has evolved, for the most part, naturally, with little deliberation on the part of the state.

Danish culture has been in large part defined by the presence of the state, in ways that most free countries simply have not. The most apparent of which is family structure or, better said, the lack thereof as the individual is completely atomized.

The average Danish child will be placed into a kindergarten from the age of 3 – 4 years old with minimal interaction with their parents, as both of them typically are working full time to afford the bills that come with having the highest tax pressure in the world, and second worst purchase power parity in Europe.

Their middle aged parents do not fare much better, as divorce is frequent enough as to become ubiquitous. Here it is worth mentioning that Danish adolescents are among the first to move out of their parents’ home in Europe. While I do not see this as inherently negative, it does add to the overall state of disconnect within the family. This disentanglement is perversely mirrored in the usual treatment of the elderly in Denmark.

Children do not interact much with their parents after they move out, and the parents life is expected to go on as usual until they are too old to live on their own. At this point the overwhelming standard is to let your parents be institutionalized. This is so common to the point where any other arrangement is practically unheard of.

With the exception of the occasional visit, the parents are left completely out of sight and thus out of mind. It’s the polar opposite of Italy, where the child is expected to either move out at some point in their forties, or simply inherit the family home and take care of their parents until their death.

While abuse is not the absolute standard within retirement homes, it is frequently reported on. It is not unusual for horror stories of elderly, no longer capable of standing on their own and bedridden, to be neglected by social workers that simply don’t want to help them get to the bathroom, and instead leave them mired in their own fecal matter for several days.

Its not that anyone wants this abuse to continue per se, in fact the topic has had mainstream attention both in the media, among political parties, and in political satire for several decades now. The truth is quite simple, and quite depressing: No one cares.

This is not meant in the sense that people find the abuse mentioned above acceptable, they don’t. Instead no one really thinks about or wants to do anything to change things.

A far leftist and former friend of mine once said that the greatest boon of the welfare state was that it “liberated him from his own morality”. Thanks to it, he argued, there was no need to care about the homeless, the poor, his family, or anyone other than himself, because ”society will take care of it”.

While many Danes would feel repulsed by such a statement, there is a kernel of truth to it: The welfare state has in its own perverse way ”liberated” the individual from his morality and responsibility. This is at least in part what we are seeing with the disentanglement between families and the elderly.

Denmark is a deeply apathetic country, and the odd thing about this characteristic apathy, whether towards governmental overreach, abuse in the social sector or blatant corruption, is that there is barely any propaganda effort from the state itself involved. Rather there simply is a disinterest so ubiquitous as to become part of the background noise, as it permeates every part of the Danish worldview: both empathically, intellectually, and politically, in ways that often appear paradoxical.

The national self-image vexes between viewing ourselves as a small, irrelevant spot in the middle of Europe to extreme arrogance over our glorious welfare state, especially compared to those stupid Americans that are constantly shooting each other or going broke from their dysfunctional, obviously anti-human private healthcare system. Although self-contradictory at a glance, these two ideas can coexist in people’s heads at the same time without cognitive dissonance, as they are not two mutually exclusive ideas, but rather a single, logically coherent narrative that can produce diametrically opposed feelings depending on the context: This national narrative, referred to as “Lilliput Chauvinism” by the politician Uffe Østergaard, is best summarized as “we are small and irrelevant but our socially homogenous and deeply empathetic culture has resulted in the north – and in particular us, creating a much more humane, and happy society than the rest of the globe.”

Like how a faucet can produce either warm or cold water, depending on how you turn the knobs, the focal point of the narrative can be altered to hone in on either the inferiority aspect as a means to deflect criticism of flaws brought to the surface, or the superiority, to induce a delusional belief in the superiority of the Danish system – which therefore does not need to be altered, as there’s no need to change what is already as good as it gets.

Complementing this is the insular nature of Danish society. Not much is reported on or understood, or even paid attention to of our neighboring countries. There is some superfluous reporting on whatever happens in the United States, usually ripped straight from their legacy media, and sometimes Sweden (since the border with them is right next to our capital) but that’s about it. Rarely is anything ever reported about Norway, Germany or Britain. The cultural insularity of the nation solidifies it’s inferiority-superiority complex, since the country as a whole is simply not aware or interested in other ways of structuring a society.

For a personal example, a family movie I watched as a small child had a song in the intro credits with lyrics such as:

man er som man er det kan ikke laves om
man går rudnt og ser ud som maan gjorde da man kom
du kan drømme om at være en kineser I new yok
men man er som man er og det er godt nok.

En hest er en hest en kat er en kat
de er ligesåforskellige som dag og som nat…
og tyskere og svenskere er også en slags menesker
og rødhårede piger er kønne

You are as you it cannot be changed
one walks around and look as one did when you arrived
you can dream about beign a chinese in New York
But you are what you are and it’s good enough

A horse is a horse a cat is a cat
they’re as different as day and as night
and Germans and Swedes are people too I suppose
and read-haired girls are cute

The song is quite indicative of the mentality here. Danes are not devoid of humour, especially not when at the expense of our neighbours, due to historical beef turned banter (as is the case with practically all Old World countries). But there’s also this notion that what you are is pretty good, so there’s no need to do anything about it, or change, or improve. What you are is more or less “good enough”.

This is certainly not helped by the populace’s disinterest in seeking out knowledge or wisdom on their own.
It’s not that Danes are stupid, as the over representation among Nobel price winners for instance shows, but that their thinking is rigid. Knowledge is only gathered and created, and expertise only acquired within already established fields, such as the hard sciences, and outside them, is a dearth of intellectual curiosity. Appeal to experts is commonplace and expert opinion is paraded around by the media on a daily basis.

It is not without reason Denmark has not had a renowned thinker – neither globally, nor domestically, since Søren Kirkegaard. On a related note, Denmark has not created many cultural movements of its own for at minimum the last 100 years. More often than not, ideas are simply imported from abroad, as was the case with Lutheran Protestantism by the priest Hans Thausen or with the welfare state itself, originally imported from Bismarck’s Prussia, until it developed a life of its own here.

Much of this lack of interest can be traced back to the 1800s: Following the loss of Norway to Sweden during the Napoleonic wars, Denmark entered a cultural period known as Romantikken, or the romantic period. The core idea was that ”what was lost externally, must be won internally”. No longer was Denmark to pay attention to anything outside of it’s own borders, as it refused to look away from its rural landscapes through rose tinted glasses; effectively romanticising what was left of the country in an attempt to ignore the nation’s sorry state of affairs.

It is here we find the source of Danish Lilliput chauvinism, as both a coping and a defence mechanism against harsh reality, as it reminded us of our own inadequacy.

This can also be seen in the notion of the Janteloven, a set of laws unique to the fictional town of Jante, made as a satire of Scandinavia’s stigma against excellence:

Don’t believe you are anything
don’t believe you are as much as us
Don’t believe you are smarter than us
Don’t believe you are better than us
Don’t believe you know more than us
Don’t believe you are more than us
Don’t believe you amount to anything
Don’t laugh at us
Don’t believe anyone likes you
Don’t believe you can teach us anything

At no point has this order of affairs ever truly been disputed. While the central focus of the following era, the modern breakthrough, indeed was that the nation ought to cease its nostalgic ruminations and face cruel reality, the cruel reality in question was the suffering of the poor and the working class, underneath the classicist society. It was essentially proto-socialism. Created a century before Marx was even born and complete with deconstructive reinterpretations of established folklore to serve the anti-idealistic bend of the era. Added to these is a fear of going outside of the system.

Dissent is allowed, but only in predetermined ways by going through the system itself, never around it, and it is frowned upon to criticise individuals working in the bureaucracy as “just doing your job” is a commonplace and acceptable justification for state overreach. The result? A society unwilling to engage in the historical arena (with the blessing of its geography), uninterested in learning from others and dedicated to the alleviation of harm from its citizens, and one which has effectively produced an “end of history”-like scenario.

There are no conflicts here and with the exception of a brief almost bloodless invasion by – and immediate submission to – Nazi Germany in the 1940s, the notion that you need to defend what you hold dear, that there’s something it must be defended against, and whether it was even worth defending in the first place, is mute. In its place there’s a perpetual state of nothing ever happening.

It can be seen even in the language too: For instance, the standard response to being asked how are things going is “stille og roligt/quiet and calm”.
Another example is the word “hygge”. Which is often paraded around as the quintessential Danish word, as it has no direct translation. The approximate is a mix between “cozy” and “comfy”. That feeling of sitting and chilling with your friends and feeling pleasant while nothing is really happening.

I’m defining it because Danish does not typically make use of a direct word for “scary” or “horrifying” instead the most commonly used word is “uhygge”. It’s much like how Russian does not have a direct mainstream word for “safety” or “security” but instead uses “undanger” [безопасность].

As nothing is happening, and will never happen, conflict is viewed as unnecessary and abnormal if not to some extend unnatural, if it is ever placed in bigger doses than the occasional joke about the Nazis or drawing of Mohammed with a bomb in his turban here and there. The ability for, and conceptualization of, conflict taking place is not only absent on a national scale but on the individual level as well. No one is capable of starting conflicts and no one has the necessary mental reflexes to handle it.

This conflict avoidance leads to an odd form of moderation, where the victim of the state will always react to abuse by pleading. If the state overreaches, the reaction will always begin by admitting one is themselves guilty before stating that what’s happening is absurd. There won’t be any backlash, only a plead for a slightly thinner slice of the salami to be served this time around. This is arguably why the country has some of the highest anti depressant consumption in the world.

It is not that we batter our children into soulless drones, it’s that we don’t need to. Because the concept of conflict simply does not exist inside the little Danish world. As there’s simply no practical way of venting frustrations people simply give up trying or become bitter and resentful, as the shadow parts of the human mind are not being allowed to fully integrate. The populace may act nice but it is not good.

And if you dig deep enough down underneath that outer layer of niceness in a Dane’s psyche, you’ll find something you won’t like looking at.

Some administrative changes

Following the announcement earlier this month and the subsequent consultation, we continued to implement new changes in the way things are done around here, all with a view to make the workflow easier as our teams grow and the backlog of things to do also grows.

Resources page

Following both practical necessity and strategic demand for increased transparency (to make delegation easier and also to simply keep track on things) we made a few changes around here.

For starters, we added the Resources page which documents the resources available for the public much better and also chronicles the resources developing for the benefit of those who choose to join the Donors’ Circle.

With this occasion we also cleaned up the site’s menu and removed some legacy pages whose relevance was deprecated.

Expanding the News Feed team

The News Feed that we’ve been maintaining on Telegram for over four years now has attracted a more diverse audience than we expected.

Initially, the Feed was made more or less for internal use so we can keep track on what’s going on and maybe pick up links to then use in podcasts/videos. However, it turns out there was a need for a curated news feed for others as well, attracting quite a bit of praise, including from people who generally disagree with us.

While we appreciate the positive feedback, the fact remains that the Feed was largely run by a team of four,… more or less. We are already underway to changing that by expanding the team and also opening up applications for new members.

As such, we published the first version of the guidelines for the Feed, making a step we stayed clear from for years: towards quasi-institutionalization.

We’re hoping to improve the quality of the news feed during 2023 and increase the status of the Feed as a reference point for relevance on politics.

Other less visible technical changes

In the background, we started managing our activities (or at least trying 😅) through a ticketing system that we’ve also made transparent (for the most part) to our donors. The same system will now be used for some internal communications.

The system is not (yet?) ready for public consumption and we’re still unsure on whether such a resource should be public to begin with. The risk of spam is much higher than the potential benefits.

The idea is to remove critical dependency from services we don’t control and we have limited trust in (e.g. Telegram). Social media (including Discord, Telegram, etc.) is great for growth and some coordination, but far from great when it comes to non-public conversations or, even worse, hinging a group’s very existence on one of them. Many good projects died as a result of their group being wiped out from social media.

While we are under no danger of that happening to us anytime soon, it is better to be prepared in advance. Besides, it simply is good practice to own your internal affairs, rather than outsource them on an opaque third party that doesn’t have your best interests in mind.

Also, we moved both torrent folders (for public and DC) on the same server.

Speaking of torrent, we’re still testing webapps for that. If we end up implementing one of them, it will not be announced on the website.

Still no consensus over the forum so the issue will thus be kicked down the road again.

As January draws to an end, so does the talk about change.

That’s it. Time to work more.

Raiffeisen Bank recognizes Putin’s republics

The Russian branch of the Austrian company Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI / Райффайзен Банк) continue to offer financial assistance to Putin’s regime and advantageous loans to Putin’s enforcers on the occupied territories in Ukraine.

Source: Raiffaisen.ruarchive format in case it disappears.

On Twitter, the bank defended itself that it is merely following the orders laws in force in the country in which it is located (archive link in case it gets deleted).

The page about the reduced-rate loans offered to the armed forces (see photo) is pretty explicit and it says that among the conditions to getting a loan is “the borrower is doing military service in the Russian Armed Forces under a contract or is in military service for the troops of the National Guard of the Russian Federation […], subject to its participation in a special military operation on the territories of Ukraine, the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Lugansk People’s Republic“.

The law the bank is referring to is Law №377/2022 approved in October 2022 that provides for deference of payments, reduced rates for loans and extended grace periods for those engaged in Russia’s war of aggression and for their families.

It’s not the first time

The Austrian bank is accustomed to bowing to any demands by the Putin regime. In 2017, Raiffeisen was the only Western bank to help the Russian government provide passports and identity documents to those requesting them in the separatist regions.

Half of the profit made by the Raiffeisen group was made in Russia last year and Raiffeisen also assisted the Russian government in late 2022 with the conscription efforts.

In 2021, Raiffeisen Bank assisted the Belarussian government as well in its effort to violently crackdown on those who dissented to Lukashenka’s regime.

On diversification and increased resilience

Every year between December 20 and January 15-ish we change some things around. Some changes are recurrent (such as the Christmas hat on our logo in the videos), some changes are not visible (like the behind-the-scenes clean-ups and upkeep) and some changes are on the policy level and on the way we do things. It is this latter category that this short note is about.

Censorship-resistant

To be fair, over the last 8 years, we had minimal troubles on this front – with the exception of Faceberg. Fortunately, Faceberg’s importance in the milieus we’re interested in has been steadily declining for 4 years in a row now so, overall, there was no serious issue. In fact, our effective reach increased after our already-throttled Faceberg page was finally shitcanned.

With that said, one of the reasons we didn’t have big issues is because we stayed ahead (or sometimes behind) the curve by implementing measures meant to absorb potential blows without compromising on what we need to say. Measures such as:

  • Moving to Telegram in 2017 (the rest of the world learned either in 2020 or in 2022 that moving to Telegram is a good idea).
  • Implementing our own IRC server for quick discrete chats in 2015
  • Big shoutout to the Discord moderation team who’ve been running our Discord server diligently and cleanly since 2018, entering in the 5th year without any major incident and keeping a much-needed balance between shitposting and serious chats
  • Getting a discrete (but consistent) presence on alt-tech [Gab, MeWe, Bitchute, Odysee]
  • Opening up this website in 2018 [using partners with a proven trackrecord of standing firmly for freedom of expression in the face of great adversity]
  • Acquiring a parallel physical infrastructure for backups-of-backups to make sure that if we are taken down, we’d be back within 72 hours
  • Implementing an internal sharing procedure and the Donors’ Circle in 2020

All of these (and others less visible) have made it very difficult to effectively censor us.

Going forward (with the approval of the Donors’ Circle) we are taking another two steps in the direction of both resilience and censorship-resistant infrastructure. As the Internet (re)Balkanizes, the opportunities present themselves.

As of this year, all of our public files and some of the internal ones shall be distributed using the BitTorrent protocol. This may seem like a step backward technologically (and it may indeed be) but the fact remains that distributing 7+GB files in an efficient manner and cross-platform compatible cannot be done more effectively and cheaper than the torrent protocol.

Sometime in the next 18 months (subjected to the Donors’ Circle opinion and technological constraints) we will try our luck with a semi-open forum. Open in the same way our Discord server is open, but also with reserved sections. The experience with the Discord server is encouraging enough to consider such an option – even though there are multiple reservations and concerns (not least in relation to privacy).

A heterodox approach to tech is the way forward and, just like we were right to switch to Telegram years before everyone else, we will very likely be proven right to set up the infrastructure for the rebalkanization of the Internet before it fully happens (mentally, it already happened).

Financially stable

The Network is not meant to turn a profit but activities costs money. And 2022 was a surprisingly good year in this department. So good that we still have a hard time believing it. In 2021 it could’ve been “blamed” on the exceptionally low-expense year of 2020. But last year exceeded the optimistic expectations. For the first time, there were no significant financial concerns.

We intend to work harder in 2023 to build upon this status quo. This will likely involve some legal changes too, though a lot of factors are beyond our control so no ironclad promises can be made in public. Suffice to say though that with a bit of luck, by 2025 we might be looking back at January 2023 as “late dark ages” in terms of the Network’s abilities to sustain itself financially.

Delegation

Throughout 2022 we managed to delegate more and more tasks and activities away from the core without any noticeable difference in quality. We are very proud for that achievement and for the work done by those who were willing to take on the tasks.

Regardless of financial results in the near future, we intend to delegate even more in order to both increase the output from the core (by freeing up time now still spent on activities that can be delegated) and also to strengthen the Freedom Alternative community. More people than we imagined 6 years ago ended up coming for the videos and staying for the community. And we want to reward that.

The decision-making process is intentionally slow, in accordance with our general philosophy and because oftentimes no policy may indeed be better than a rushed/spontaneous/spur-of-the-moment policy or action. That’s why we roll out new things slowly – much to the annoyance of some.

We know we can’t please everyone and we’re okay with that. We also know that we’re all inherently flawed so the best that can be done is to strive to do better whilst keeping in mind that perfect is the enemy of good.

To all those who’ve been with us through various parts of this magnificent journey, we humbly thank you and we hope you stay with us for new heights.

Let’s explore!

On the November drought

Over the course of this past November, three countries were expected to see a wave of right wing success in their upcoming elections. Denmark, Brazil, and the United States, were embroiled in elections of great importance – not so much due to the next four years of government, but for the long term cultural trends they represent.

All three countries saw significant right wing success around 2016, followed by what is now a surprisingly successful pushback from their left wing status quo.

In America, this has been in the form of the disastrous last two years of the Biden administration as well as mediocre results for the right in the Midterms. Mediocre enough that Donald Trump’s future as the GOP’s main presidential candidate has been openly questioned.

In Brazil, a hostile state apparatus sought to quell the flames of support for Bolsonaro and the left has now successfully ousted him during this past election.

And in my home country of Denmark, our left-wing government had successfully taken on the mantle of populism to win the elections back in 2019, only to impose lockdowns and egregious breaches of the Constitution under the pandemic.

During the elections of this past November they not only managed to maintain an almost unchanged number of votes compared to 2019, the social liberal party that forced them to call an election over their continued breaches of the constitution and peoples trust have seen their voter base cut in half.

As a morbidly ironic cherry on top, several of the small villages of northern Jutland that relied heavily on mink farming voted overwhelmingly for the political party that destroyed their way of life.

Despite the large differences in the cultures of these three countries as well as how the reassertions have played out, the right-wingers in all three countries had developed very similar, but equally dangerous narratives on what should have happened;

These narratives all revolve around some form of revolution, wherein the capital P People have realized the tyrannical nature of the left and rise up, and through the Democratic Process push the country back towards Truth, Justice, and Liberty, and render us from corruption and progressive tyranny. It just so happens that it didn’t pan out that way.

The cause of this dissonance between right wing mythology and left wing reality however, is not to be found in some unknown source of leftist competence, or a successful propagandizing of the voters, but in the Right itself.
Specifically the populist savior mythos that the right has capitalized on since the campaign of Donald Trump in 2016.

Here, it is important to make a distinction between populist policies and populist savior mythos. Populist policies are merely whatever form of policies are written with the intent of appealing to the working man. Things like lowering immigration, or removing CRT propaganda from schools are contemporary forms of populist policies from the Right, while raising the minimum wage or giving more power to worker unions are examples of Leftist populist policies.

It should be noted that these policies do not need to actually be beneficial to the working classes, nor that being populist inherently means they’re harmful either. It is simply a label for any policy, good or bad that aims to appeal to the lower classes. The issue here, however is the mythos.

As it has resulted in the cult-like mentality that as long as the correct person is voted into power (Donald Trump being the best known example of this) victory is assured, as well as a distorted view of democracy.

The populist mythology was effective at the time, but was also simplistic and overly black and white. This is nothing new, it is in fact a historical norm for any successful narrative; the problem is that this time around there were no checks and balances within the Right that could mitigate the negative effects of the current party narrative.

This is usually done by having a well established elite that understands the shortcomings of the narrative, and knows which of the newer recruits to select for or filter out of the upper parts of the party hierarchy.
The checks and balances were not present this time around, however, and now the Right has a lot of people believing their own propaganda way too far up in the party.

The results of believing too much in the populist narrative in question have been overly naïve views on not just democracy but a genuine belief that there is a right side of history, that there will be a permanent victory over the forces of evil (the left), and that democracy unhindered and without interference will always move towards the side of the party that is on to the right side of history. At its core this is a surprisingly leftist and revolutionary way of thinking. Combined with a characteristically Protestant Christian form of moral prudence.

Since all actions are filtered through the lens of right vs wrong side of history, even the most benign attempt to persuade public opinion towards the right must be stomped out, with much more extreme prejudice than they’d display to even the most sadistically violent Antifa member, as long as it in any way is perceived as ”rude” or ”indecent” or a ”danger to Our Democracy”

What’s more, the criteria for what is ”immoral” is barely even dictated by anyone on their own side, but more often whatever far left propaganda manages to bubble up through the legacy media. In practice this means the Left can declare any rules of engagement they feel like, and no matter how ludicrous they are, no matter how obvious it is they themselves don’t take said rules seriously, the Right will enforce them upon their own and solely their own with unparalleled religious zeal.

It doesn’t matter that the Right themselves are aware that said propagandists are merely trying to manipulate them, nor does it matter what consequences following said propaganda will bring. As long as it touches their ideological blind spot of recoiling from anything and everything that is not pristine and principled, they will instinctively jump on the opportunity to throw as many spanners in the works of what any sane man would call their party fellows, until they have returned the Right to its state of ”principled conservatism on the side of democracy”. Which almost always is identical to a state of stagnant ineptitude.

Much of the Right’s current miserable situation is as a direct result of this segment. And as much as I hope dearly that at least some of these people will realize how wrong they were in following the ”will of the people”, now that the populace is kissing the hand of what they perceive as totalitarians on the wrong side of history, I honestly fear they’re too emotionally invested in their ideological framing for anything to convince them.

While it is impossible to have a political party without these people – just as it is impossible to be without any other form of narrative in an organization, too many of them have moved far too near the core of the organized right in far too many western countries. If the Right wants to regain its footing, it is to push it’s populist tendencies back out into the peripheries and ensure it’s core is more in tune with reality.

If the right instead chooses to preserve its delusional aspirations of sainthood it will experience the same filtering out and discarding at the hands of cruel nature as any other entities that proved unfit for their environment throughout life’s evolution on this earth.

Poland is not yet lost

Last Friday, November 11, marked the 104th anniversary of the Independence of Poland. As customary for over a decade now, the patriots held the Independence March from Rondo Dmowskiego to the National Stadium in Warsaw.
What made this one special was that it’s one held while war is still going on very close to Polish borders and 4 days later a stray missile was going to hit inside Polish territory.

We expected a tensed situation and so we took a quick trip with some of our younger members, thinking it would be a good opportunity to learn a bit more about the Polish ethos and the lying media, as well as to catch up with some of the older friends of the Sofa. And we hit jackpot on all three.

Rondo Dmowskiego, at the start of the Independence March (Marsz Niepodległości). November 11, 2022

The lying media

Here’s how Reuters (a source still considered trustworthy by far too many) decided to describe the event:

Thousands of people gathered in Warsaw on Friday for an annual march organised by Poland’s far-right to mark Independence Day, with a handful carrying white supremacist or anti-gay banners and firing off red flares.

Marchers, including families with children as well as representatives of far-right groups, waved white and red Polish flags and chanted “God, Honour, Homeland” as they walked through central Warsaw amid a heavy police presence.

The parts marked in red are, essentially, lies. And, since the authors of the Reuters article are Polish, we will go ahead and say these lies are intentional, premeditated and broadcast in bad faith for a political agenda.

On al. Jerozolimskie, during the Independence March (Marsz Niepodległości). November 11, 2022

”Thousands”

There were “thousands” of people, alright. After all, 200,000 and 2000 both qualify as “thousands” even though the attendance at the Independence March was much closer to the former, rather than the latter.

This is a consistent pattern with illegitimate media: Normal people’s civic manifestations are downplayed (when they can’t outright be ignored) while the far-Left’s agitation is intentionally overplayed. For example, click this link to see how Reuters covered an equally big protest back in 2020 against a court ruling concerning abortion. Please notice that at the height of the panic porn regarding the Wuhan Flu, suddenly none of that mattered when it was leftists protesting for the right to murder babies abortion. And now please compare how Reuters covered the Independence March that took place less than two weeks after the Leftists’ protest.

”Far right”

Independence March (Marsz Niepodległości). November 11, 2022

It is a constant smear by Western media to paint anyone to the Right of the unelected, unaccountable and illegitimate Brussels bureaucrats as ‘far right’ – but it is particularly egregious when this is applied to both the organizers and the attendants of the Polish Independence March.

Like every year, the march featured the signage of Polska Walcząca (Poland uprising/Poland Fighting) – which is the oldest antifascist organization in the world. When posh Western liberals were still implementing the exact same policies as the failed Austrian painter turned German dictator, the Polish people were already organizing the resistance. Only to now have the same Western liberals come in to smear them. The fact that Polish people aren’t even harsher against West-Europe in particular is a testament of Poland’s goodwill – albeit unearned when it comes to continental west-Europe.

Like every year, the march was very explicit in its opposition to international-socialism, national-socialism, LGBT-ist ideology, Russian imperialism, Putinism, Islamism and generally all forms of totalitarian ideology. Apparently, this is ‘far right’ every year. Likely its because the Polish people oppose the West’s preferred forms of totalitarianism too, not just those that are fancy to oppose.

Poland doesn’t have genderist grooming scandals in its schools or Islamist attacks on its streets precisely because it is successfully opposing these forms of totalitarianism as well.

Independence March (Marsz Niepodległości). November 11, 2022 Banner reads: “Kyiv and Warsaw – common cause”

With that said, it is true that a legit far right contingent was present at the march and, just like in previous years, it constituted less than 5% of the overall huge march. After all, when you gather 200,000 people, it is effectively impossible not to also have some more… let’s say colorful elements showing up too.

It is worth noting, though, that the legit far right elements (or at least those willing to openly display far right symbolism) are also in full support of Ukraine – unlike the so-called far-right in the West which is always busy doing inconspicuous Putinist shilling or outright approving, quite openly so, Russia’s imperialist and expansionist agenda.

Say what you want about the ‘far right’ in Poland, but at the very least they’re not cucking for Russia nor are they in the business of being fooled by Dugin’s ramblings. Everyone would be better off if their ‘far right’ would be like this.

As for the ‘far right’ organizing… this is such a bald-faced lie that’s hardly worth debunking. The public is made to believe that the ‘far right’ in Poland is at the same time extremist but also so lovely that children, old people (who’ve seen two or three forms of totalitarianism in their lifetimes) and upper-middle class young people all come in enthusiastically at a far-right event. Yeah… right.

In reality, the Independence March this year was (just like every year) an expression of unity and strength of the Polish people in face of aggression. Even lefties attended the march (at least not the insane ones, who end up writing for Reuters).

It should be noted that on the issue of Ukraine, there was also some diversity of thought. While the overwhelming majority do support the Ukrainian war effort, a few don’t – and made their voices heard at the march as well.

Independence March (Marsz Niepodległości). November 11, 2022 Banner reads: “Not our war. Stop the Ukrainization of Poland”

While it is not our place to say what Poles should or shouldn’t support, it is worth mentioning that supporting Ukraine in this conflict makes impeccable geopolitical sense for Poland’s strategic national interests – especially considering that the price in human lives low (though unfortunately non-zero).

With that said, one should also expect some backlash, particularly in Poland – a country that not only isn’t a big fan of mass migration, but a country which also spent the most resources in all of Europe to helping Ukrainians fleeing war. At least 3.2 million Ukrainians remain in the country right now (2 million refugees and 1.2 million migrant workers, most of the latter predating the onset of the war). By the end of 2022, Poland will have spent $8.3 billion on housing, health and other services for Ukrainians, the highest in Europe. So in this context (and an inflation rate at about 20%), some grumbling is to be expected.

Americans are furious at an inflation rate of 8% and immigration levels far lower per capita than Poland. So a bit of perspective is in order before classifying anyone fatigued as a Putinist.

Independence March (Marsz Niepodległości). November 11, 2022, Warsaw Putin hanged symbolically by the Poniatowskiego Bridge

“Amid heavy police presence”

The independence march is, by far, the most peaceful yearly manifestation in its category (150,000 people or more every year) so the adding of the phrase “amid heavy police presence” by the Western media’s reporting is not only a factual lie (see video at the beginning of the video) but also a sneaky trick to paint a different image in the minds of the readers than what reality looked like.

Yes, of course there was some law enforcement – just like at any protest/manifestation anywhere on Earth. But most of it was concentrated in the Old Town, around government buildings (given that both the President and the Prime Minister held public speeches before the march) – while the march itself was, just like in previous years except 2020, free of any interference by law enforcement.

One caveat though: there was heavy police presence on the street that goes to the Russian Embassy that is orthogonal to the main street that the march ran on. Such action by the police is quite understandable, given that the Russian Embassy and Russian diplomats have been constantly under various non-lethal attacks by civilians. If as little as 2% of the crowd decided to take a detour to the Russian Embassy, the situation could’ve ended up quite badly, given the understandable “love” of the Polish people for the Russian State.

Independence March (Marsz Niepodległości). November 11, 2022, Warsaw. On the Poniatowskiego Bridge with the scary red flares

The whining about the red flares (which is barely mentioned in local media) is part of the wider safetyist anti-fun nanny-statist mentality of the contemporary Left. Anything that’s fun and involves fire is reflexively opposed by the so-called liberals.

To a contemporary leftist, flares should be outright banned or at the very least so heavily regulated that only big corporations that are friends of the Party can afford the monstrous cost of compliance to do anything fun (cost which would, of course, then be passed down to regular people to then be taxed by the State).

To us, it’s a breath of fresh air and, yes, an expression of freedom. We gladly helped the teenagers along the way who asked us to take pictures or video with them doing fun stuff with the flares.

It was also great to witness the disorganized spontaneously-ordered spectacle of fireworks, firecrackers and flares – all fired by regular people (from 10 year olds to 80 year olds) as another facet of the joy to be living in a country that takes its sovereignty seriously.

A word on politics

The media only covered the Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (the ruling party in Poland) versus the EU-backed Left angle. But this is not the only angle. And, when it comes to this march and national(ist) politics, it’s not even a relevant angle to begin with.

Tensions between the mainstream Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (PiS) and the non-leftist groups that are not part of the ruling coalition have been growing over the last 3 years. And growing faster since the escalation of the war in Ukraine.

The nationalist and other non-leftist groups that traditionally supported PiS or at the very least didn’t oppose PiS have shifted gears a little bit. And some of them quite a lot.

Whether it’s intentional or not, or whether it’s just a cynical power play or they’re Kremlin stooges – the fact remains that a loud minority of self-identified conservatives are no longer busy opposing the sources of Evil in the country (the EU, Russia and the far-Left) but busy opposing PiS while remaining silent on other issues – a phenomenon known as punching right or punching to your immediate left.

Independence March (Marsz Niepodległości). November 11, 2022, Warsaw. On the Poniatowskiego Bridge. Banner by Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (Confederation of the Polish Crown). It reads: “Stop the Ukrainization of Poland”

Perhaps the biggest exponent of this is the KKP (Confederation of the Polish Crown), a far-right party that advocates the abolition of the Republic and a return to Monarchy, in addition to ”shaping the social life based on the principles of Latin civilization.”

The KKP is in an alliance with the more known Konfederacija, namely the libertarian-conservative Konfederacja Odnowy Rzeczypospolitej Wolność i Nadzieja (Confederation for the Renewal of the Republic Liberty and Hope) – routinely abbreviated as KORWiN and founded by… well… Janusz Korwin Mikke.

While Korwin-Mikke himself and the party stayed away from such messaging, the suspicions of him being a Kremlin stooge have only increased in the last 3 years – especially given that both himself and the alliance largely has become more noticeably anti-PiS rather than pro-conservative and anti-Left.

While these tensions were not necessarily visible during the march – as the KKP activists marched side by side with people and groups sporting pro-Ukraine signs, Ukrainian flags or anti-Putin messages – the political tensions in society are on the rise.

Since Poland doesn’t have a two-party system, these tensions don’t necessarily help the Left. There are 14 stand-alone political parties in the Parliament, plus two coalitions (a centrist one of two parties and a right-wing one of 4 parties). But these tensions could lead to a more fragmented Parliament (Bulgaria or Israel-style) come 2023, thus making coalition building much more complicated.

So,… yeah. Poland’s not yet lost. And it is forging its own path to go through this current crisis. Unlike others who talk about resilience, the Polish history is wholly about a resilient people so, if there’s anyone we’d bet to pull this off, it is Poland.

Honor i Ojczyzna!

What next after flattening the groomers

Over the last 12 months, the issue of (trans)genderist ideology being shoved down the throats of children blew up and will likely influence the upcoming Midterms positively.

Needless to say, it isn’t a new topic. Here we’ve been discussing it for years. Because that’s why people come to the Sofa – to learn the news from the future.

Watch videos:
46 year-old dude is a 6 yo girl
Norway’s intellectuals: Transchildren “need” legal recognition
Progressive transgenderism: Sex toys for 3 year olds
Carnival cancelled because the kids dressed ”gender stereotypically”
“No Gender December” – The UN’s latest cause in Australia

So considering that now even left-wing mainstream figures sound on this issue almost exactly as the Sofa sounded over 7 years ago, suffice to say that the issue is now past the narrative curve’s third inflection point and, as such, it no longer requires the attention of cognizant political actors – such as this esteemed audience.

Put it simply: The issue will be solved regardless of whether we put in any effort from now on. The alliances are set, the plebs are awoken, the money is already there for the campaigns and momentum is also present. So, best we can do is make sure they don’t blow it (never underestimate good people’s ability to fuck things up).

So what we should be thinking now is the next step. What happens after this? The moment of “after” isn’t far away at all. Just a few days ago Florida banned puberty blockers and the whole “therapy” aimed at castrating and mutilating children. Most countries in Europe have either already did this or are considering similar policies. Most of the US will follow suit in the next 3 to 5 years. It’s a done deal. So… what’s next?

Tantalizing both sides

Once the children issue is solved (for which near-universal agreement exists), the issue will naturally gravitate towards adults. What to do with so-called “transgender” adults?

The current alliance between normal people, religious freaks, far-Left feminists and other members of the C-set may or may not hold. Those more libertarian will be tempted to abandon the issue once the children side of the story is solved. This will necessarily increase the power within the remaining alliance of the recently-acquired far-Left feminists (so-called “TERFs”). And their argument is a powerful one: Protect single sex spaces!

Now, the message itself is not prima faciae wrong or morally reprehensible. The problem is that, in practice, this means protect women’s and only women’s single sex spaces. And THAT, I contend, is morally reprehensible.

The other “side” isn’t/won’t be any better: They will claim that adults can “self identify” as whatever they want and disagreeing is discrimination which is allegedly a bad thing (it isn’t).

What I suggest is that we tantalize both sides (the English language doesn’t have a perfect equivalent for a băga bățul prin gard).

We tantalize the TERFs (alongside the well-meaning people who actually buy into the inherently misandrist message that women’s single sex spaces are for women’s safety – which is a deeply hateful message if you think about it) by imposing conditions: You want our help? Great! Right after we get codified in law the exclusive right of both men and women to single-sex spaces.

We tantalize the other side by over-enthusiastically supporting their bid(s). And by that I mean saying the quiet part loud: The transgender agenda as applied to adults will destroy women’s sports (which is not a bad thing, given that women’s “professional” sports is already entirely subsidized by men and is generally of no value to the community). This agenda will also ruin all sex-specific policies (which is objectively a good thing) when it comes to “affirmative action”, “all-women shortlists” (in politics) and other similarly destructive, illiberal, immoral and inherently misandristic policies that are plaguing our societies.

Why?

Ultimately, we have to admit we don’t really have a dog in this fight. Whichever side wins, it brings some positive and some negative things with it. So the best we can do (and, I argue, should do) is to try to influence the final position(s) of both sides in such a way that we get as much as possible out from this conflict.

If the “TERF side” wins with our amendments as well – we get an important step in the right direction when it comes to freedom of association. The very idea that in most countries of Europe you can’t run an all-male OR all-female club/business/NGO/school/etc is bonkers and illiberal in and of itself. Freedom of association also means freedom not to associate. And, as politically incorrect as that may sound, yes, this includes the freedom to refuse to associate with the opposite sex sometimes.

I’m not going to get now into the benefits of that. The benefits of single-sex schools are well known. Not to mention the benefits to the mental health of both teenage girls and especially teenage boys of having a place to go to where one is not subjected to the inherent weirdness of the opposite sex.

Today we are at a time and place where all-male spaces are either outright banned or heavily shamed into oblivion. There’s a reason the phrase “sausage fest” has an inherently negative connotation and it is also much more widely known that its equivalent – fanny fest.

What I’m arguing is that instead of fighting to get “fanny fest” down to the same negative connotation, we should instead fight to abolish both terms. There is nothing inherently wrong with events/places where most or all participants are of one sex. Quite the opposite: oftentimes it’s very healthy.

The downside of this route is that we’re not getting rid of feminist harpies this round either.

If the progressive/gender abolitionist side wins, we get, progressively, the destruction of all women-only policies, render “affirmative action” useless and, bonus, our societies end up saving up on some money too.

Just as I’m typing this, the Women’s EHF EURO 2022 is taking place in Slovenia, North Macedonia and Montenegro. A handball tournament that very few care about, but for which the governments of these (already poor) countries paid a fuckton of money that they’ll never see back – because Women’s Handball is nowhere near as interesting as Men’s Handball. Just like in other sports, a 3-rd tier division match between semi-pro men’s handball teams is far more competitive and attractive than even the grand final of Women’s EURO.

So, if the progressive side wins, all of that goes out of the window. Slower, or faster – but out it goes. It’s the natural/logical conclusion.

The downside of this is that it actively harms women without benefiting men. But is it really a downside?

Women allowed feminist harpies to protest in their names, for decades, for nothing less than the legal abolition of male-only spaces. So why should we care that, if in this dispute the “progressive”side wins, it would effectively do the same to female-only spaces? Welp,… I will need to be convinced to give a damn. I don’t actively want to destroy women-only spaces – but I honestly dgaf if they end up being destroyed because of this conflict.

The point being this: We cannot go on for much longer with the status quo – where single-sex rights de facto only exist for women. Whichever way this conflict goes – either by abolishing single-sex rights altogether or by reverting to saner standards – will still be a better position than the current one.

Of course, ideally, both sides should win and lose at the same time. Ideally, we should restore much of the freedom of association lost on the altar of feminism and progressivism and we also should get rid of affirmative action (of all kinds), get rid of feminist harpies and all the rest of the single-sex (read: women-only) programmes that exist solely on the basis of theft of resources from men and redistributed to women for no benefit whatsoever for the community as a whole.

But, we don’t live in an ideal world. So, the best we can do is to try to influence the position(s) of both sides in such a way that minimizes harm and maximizes the steps in the right direction.

That’s it for now. I haven’t yet made up my mind on the strategy – so I am all ears on a different strategy. Now it’s your turn to convince me that I’m wrong. Through the usual channels, of course.

Cheers!