7 reasons the 2010s were great

Technically speaking, the 2010s started on January 1, 2011 and ended on December 31, 2020. We’re now in the early days of the ’20s.

Two years ago I was urging people to think with the power of the century or at the very least with the power of the decade – as opposed to merely here and now or, at best, till the next elections.

So in that spirit, let us now look at what the 2010s meant – specifically by comparing the early days of 2011 with the present-day. It is strongly advisable for everyone to engage in such exercise from time to time because being caught in the various controversies and quibbles of the day risks putting one in the situation of not seeing the forest for the trees.

Zooming out a little bit from time to time is healthy.

1. Obama

In early 2010s the doomers and blackpillers (just as useless then as they are now) were ‘predicting’ that Hussein the Antichrist would send the ATF door to door to seize all weapons.

That doomsday narrative was a bit harder to promote because it was so unbelievably haram to criticize Obama to begin with. The very notion of criticizing Obama was unthinkable unless you were a “loon” which, of course, only the “far-Right” was.

Oh, and the Affordable Care Act (”Obamacare”) was due to be forever and usher in perpetual socialism. Remember that?

Fast forward to present day and one of the few things all Americans agree with is that it’s a good thing to have a gun. Former anti-gun leftists suddenly queued for hours to get their own piece in the last part of the decade. The idea of ATF rounding up guns from civilians in door-to-door raids comes off as even more laughable today than it already was at the beginning of the decade.

Obamacare is, for all intends and purposes, gone. It was barely in force for 3 years overall. With multiple exceptions and basically anyone who didn’t want to partake in the experiment had a way to avoid it.

As for the Antichrist? Well…. the Antichrist did come – but for the Left, in the person of the now outgoing President Trump.

Oh, and criticizing Obama is pretty mainstream even on the center-Left. What was unimaginable in 2010 became mainstream by the end of the decade.

2. The European Union

Euroskepticism had been a thing since early 1990s but it only started being visible in mid 2000s.

In June 2008 the Irish people rejected the Lisbon Treaty at the ballot box and it seemed that euroskepticism might have a shot. But then, following backroom machinations by Jose Manuel Barroso and corrupt Irish politicians, the Irish people were asked to vote again in October 2009. The second time it passed.

Then came the January 2012 Croatian referendum which was due to decide whether Croatia joins the EU or not. The referendum passed with over 65% ”yes” – but in a campaign in which the “NO” side was effectively forbidden.

The Croatian people were basically not allowed to hear the case for “NO”. Euroskeptics were hunted on social media (yes, reporting one into oblivion was a thing in 2011 too), arrested when they organized for rallies in the streets, denied TV appearances and demonized intentionally until they lost parliamentary representation before the campaign for the referendum.

So the idea of stopping or reversing the expansion of the EU looked impossible in the early days of the 2010s.

Yet… in the second half of the decade… the tides turned. Brexit happened, enlargement was put on hold and even the most optimistic eurofanatics are now compelled to contemplate that more exits from the EU may happen – with the Netherlands, Sweden and Poland being quite decent candidates.

Ireland and Croatia showed how low is the EU willing to stoop in order to expand its power. But Great Britain also showed what is possible when non-leftists are willing to think with the power of the decade and be a bit more resilient to the disdainful bullshit put out by the agents of totalitarianism in order to scare the normies into voting for less freedom.

3. Islam

At the beginning of the decade, any discussion about Islam as a problem in Europe in particular and in the West in general was essentially non-existent. Only very dubious places on the Internet discussed.

In 2012 the Israeli journalist and filmmaker Zvi Yehezkeli makes the first serious documentary about the Islam problem in Europe. Still, outside Israel, the documentary only receives attention from the ‘far-Right’ and ‘loonies’ like me. While the documentary wasn’t outright censored, it also didn’t get much mainstream attention as the bien pensants characterized it as “hysterical”.

The topic remained on the fringes of the political debate even though more and more Europeans were suffering at the hands of Islamists in their own cities and countries. Nobody seemed to care. Then came the 2015 terrorist attack on Charlie Hebdo. Then Bataclan. Then numerous other Islamist attacks in Europe. More populist parties and politicians started having electoral success but even with the effects of the 2015 migrant crisis – the discussion was still frustrated.

Then in 2020 outright mockery of Islamism became the norm in the public square. Politicians and cultural figures who in 2012 or even 2016 were turning up their noses at any discussion about Islam as a problem were now attending marches with slogans and displays that were only the purview of the ‘extreme Right’ at the beginning of the decade.

There’s still a long way to go – but politics is downstream from culture. The topic of Islam as a problem has gone through almost all stages in the Overton window – from unimaginable, to marginal, to the purview of the undesirables (dare I say deplorables?) and all the way to mainstream and even policy in some areas.

In January 2011 it would’ve been unimaginable to introduce a system that would regulate mosques and put intelligence filters on imams – measures explicitly meant to privilege Western norms over the opinions of the looniest Islamists in the world. Such thing would’ve been ‘islamophobia’ in 2012-13 or even ‘racism’ in ’15-’16. By 2020 it became normal sensible, centrist position for the bien pensants du jour.

And all of you out there who have worked for this in the last decade – especially those in the early part of the decade – you have a merit in this too. By making criticism of Islam acceptable, you have paved the way to curbing this lunacy.

Now, in the early days of the 2020s, even in the Middle East there’s wind of curbing Islamism in ways simply unimaginable in the region merely 10 years ago.

4. Feminism/Sexual politics

The 2010s started just like the previous 6 or 7 decades had started – with the topic of ‘sexual politics’ locked into the same paradigm that’s been harming both men and women to the benefit of an increasingly lunatic academic class as well as politicians and, yes, businesses.

Although some seeds of dissent were already visible since the 2000s, such as this academic paper on how Feminism is kinda terrible, even those were very far away from the paradigm that was due to become the absolute norm in the next decade.

While in 2010, 2011 or 2012 the discussion was to the tone of “well, there are some bad aspects of feminism but…” – by the end of the decade even otherwise leftish, feminist-friendly and bien pensant spaces had to at least semi-seriously discuss whether feminism might indeed be cancer.

By 2020, feminists were on the defensive. Now articles like this one where you’re told that feminism is akchually not as bad as “you are made to believe” are quite common. The phrase “you are made to believe” is an acknowledgment of the consistent win on narrative by non-feminists.

In 2011 I was saying in podcasts that it may take over a decade until we get to see some mainstream defense of proper liberalism and meritocracy over universal concern of women. Yet by 2018 even The Guardian was thoroughly defending Jordan Peterson for saying that the feminist claims about “equal pay” may indeed be bullshit (and they are).

Articles like this one where feminist ideologues are scared shitless over the fact that more and more women explicitly and resoundingly reject feminism have become increasingly common towards the latter part of the 2010s. In 2011-12 it was an oddity to read (let alone meet!) an anti-feminist woman. Today it’s the New Normal 😀

Of course, there is still a long way to go. But in just one decade non-feminists advanced more than they had advanced in the previous 7 for sure. I already explained in this video what’s in the bag for this decade.

At best, only the youngest readers of this article will be alive to witness the end of this narrative curve on sexual politics. Nevertheless, this last decade was great for this particular subtopic.

5. Environmentalism

Environmentalism had been turning into eco-Marxism for quite some time and the 2010s didn’t seem to be any different.

While in 1992 the world had witnessed Severn Cullis-Suzuki in a well-executed photo-op of the prophet-child of doomsday in the Environmentalist cult, the 2010s gave us Greta Thunberg.

And it seemed like it was all the same. Yet another decade full of eco-Marxist propaganda that plebs swallow via paid shills as well as extremist loons impervious to reason.

But then director Jeff Gibbs using Michael Moore’s infrastructure produced the best piece of anti-eco-Marxist agitprop to date – Planet of the Humans.

Of course, given that it’s Michael Moore, it wasn’t exactly easy to dismiss it as ‘far-Right propaganda’ so Environmentalism Inc. used an extremist interpretation of copyright law to slow down the propagation of the movie. Too little, too late.

The Wuhan Flu also helped (since leftists were more scared of it anyway thus had more time to look into the situation) and, as a result, Michael Moore’s documentary looking into the corruption of the environmentalist movement has wrecked havoc among the radicals of the movement since the piece offered both a rational critique of the “green” practices and an ideological one (coming from the Left).

With many of its radicals dissatisfied, the green movement’s future into the 2020s looks a lot less bright than it was looking prior to the Planet of the Humans. No amount of shekels from the World Economic Forum and no Great Reset can really reset all the green radicals who’ve been demoralized and/or deradicalized by one of the best executed propaganda pieces that I’ve seen in the last decade.

6. China (People’s Republic)

At the beginning of the decade, the topic of China as an issue was basically non-existent. A report here and there once a decade – usually by a conservative think tank – were the only blips on the radar of any serious discussion on the topic.

In 2012 the BBC was somewhat nervously but overall joyfully reporting on the rise of Chinese influence but… that’s about it. No matter what date filters or what search engine one uses, there’s almost nothing in the mainstream about China as an issue between 2009 and 2014. Once a year we would read about how Chinese youth finds the West attractive or some derision of some blogger in China (in 2014). While the New York Times was laughing, that blogger became one of the top-tier propaganda operatives of the CCP – personally invited by Xi Jinping to shape the internal narrative about the West. Almost nobody saw that except a few scholars and political operatives who just a year later started working on what was to be known as…. President Trump.

I don’t care what your opinion about President Trump is. The fact is that candidate Trump and then President Trump forced everyone to get woke on the China question.

While in 2012 it was “curious” or even “cute” to see Chinese script on London’s double deckers, by late 2015 and early 2016, candidate Trump made everyone take a look at the big, red and aggressive elephant in the room.

In August 2015 the Cathedral was still laughing and publishing montages like this one inferring that then-candidate Trump has some unhealthy obsession with China. After China’s global lockdown propaganda in 2020, however, nobody is laughing.

Now even the BBC has Trump’s “obsession” with China, publishing weekly very astute inquiries about China’s propaganda apparatus. This is all good.

The first step towards dealing with a problem is acknowledging there is one. Ronald Reagan acknowledged the Evil Empire. Donald Trump acknowledged the China problem. Hopefully our civilization will win this Cold War as well.

7. National-conservatism

The 2010s also gave rise to a new way of politics (of course, with old ideas because there is no such thing as new ideas).

In 2010 it was still very haram to be nationalistic and especially to be nationalistic while at the same time supporting economic freedom. LOLbertarians would reject that and the Establishment didn’t like the nationalism part.

However, slowly, but surely, as the decade progressed (sic!) national-conservatism grew in prominence no matter what the Establishment threw at it. And, boy did they throw everything at it.

Billions of dollars (literally) were spent just to stop or at least slow down the rise of national-conservatism in Poland, Brazil, Germany, Italy, Hungary, Sweden (to a certain extent), the United Kingdom, Austria, Spain or India.

As I’m writing this, many are still upset, angry or even demoralized by the situation in the United States – and those are of course the people who have come to politics with the Trump Train.

However, this particular variant of conservatism did not start with Donald Trump nor will it end with the outgoing President of the United States. Just today, Politico Magazine is noting (absolutely correctly) that European Trumpism won’t end with Trump. Well, they call it ‘trumpism’ because they want clicks for their website – but in the article they do acknowledge that this way of doing politics predates Trump and will for sure continue after Trump’s term.

And this way of doing conservatism (whether you call it populism, national-conservatism or whatever) is a product of the 2010s that has already passed the test of time in several places and it is to be expected to endure in many others throughout the 2020s.

The biggest advantage of this way is that it finally brought in younger people. In 2010-11, the average age of a participant at a conservative event was around deceased. In my country there was even a running joke that the youth wing of conservatives has a median age of 60 and a 50 year old is a young talent or a young prospect. The 2010s changed all of that and turned things around!

Now you have deeply conservative parties which are majority young. Leftist establishmentarians are routinely stunned by how young these new conservative startups skew. Vox in Spain for instance wastes no time in successfully targeting teenagers (just like the far-Left used to do, btw).

In fact, allover Europe populists/national-conservatives skew very young both in terms of leading candidates and voters. This, of course, makes sense. The “boomers” are the 1968-ers now and subsequent establishmentarians (almost all leaning heavily Left – be it classical Marxist Left or modernist/globohomo Left).

Still, none of that would’ve been possible if not for the tireless work of so many networks allover the world bringing conservative/non-Leftist wisdom to the young – eschewing the State indoctrination facilities public schools and the subversion thereof.

Looking into the roaring 20s

The previous decade started in a low note. Almost all of the topics covered in this article were either outright unimaginable or almost in the complete opposite end of development in 2010-11.

For some, this decade starts in a low note as well (though for Freedom Alternative Network it sure does start in a high and optimistic note).

There will be challenges, for sure: the propaganda and economic dispute(s) with China don’t look good now, a weak/distasteful administration is coming at the White House and Big Tech is acting up. But none of that is new either. The previous decade started with a similar crisis too (health + economic), with a distasteful admin in the WH and with Big Tech sucking giant balls as well.

People seem to forget the big censorship scandals of Big Tech from 2010 or 2011. Such as this one. Or this one. Same with banning apps. Everyone seems to forget that Google has been doing this for almost a decade.

What I’m saying is that the ’20s don’t start with challenges unheard of in the recent past. In 2013 it was believed that adblocks will cease to exist because Google censored them. Not only that didn’t happen but the market compelled Google not just to tolerate adblocks, but develop its own too and join the market.

I suspect the same will be the case with the concerns du jour. Yes, Big Tech sucks (as usual) but the pressure is bigger today (in a single day) than in the whole previous decade combined. By the end of this decade things will look radically different and better. You’ll see.

How do I know? Because you can’t stop an idea whose time has come. You can slow it down, surely, but can’t stop it. Just like euroskepticism couldn’t be stopped no matter how many billions of euros were spent on disinformation, bullshit legal cases and outright censorship.

There’s important elections to come this year: in the Netherlands, Bulgaria (both in March), Norway, Germany (both in September) and Czechia in October. Then in 2022 there are important electoral events in France (April), Hungary, Slovenia, Sweden (September), Brazil (October) and, of course, the Midterms in the USA (highly important in November).

It is up to every one of us how the ’20s will look like. But one thing is certain: if we work at least as hard and determined as we’ve been working in the 2010s, there is no reason not to expect to be living through another set of roaring ’20s.

However, if you succumb to the darkest instincts or to demoralization, then you will be doing a great service to the agents of totalitarianism. Should you decide to do so, at the very least stay out of the way of those who want to build upon the successes of the 2010s. While everyone is welcomed to the party, party poopers should be socially distanced 😀

As I’m writing this, I’m wrapping up the preparations for the first interview tour of this decade. Because campaigning never stops. Not if you want to win.

A’ight. That’s it for now. Let’s roll! We got work to do!

The lockdown in Britain is criminal

A simple reason why the lockdown was/is criminal, and why you have great chances to be a victim of it, far greater than being victim of any other social issue of our time.

I just called the local clinic for a medical appointment with the GP(general practitioner doctor). The local clinic appointments, usually, go fast. They can see you in a few days, if it’s not urgent in which case they can see you faster. During the pandemic they were able to see me on the same day because the clinics were empty. Fine.

The problem is when they have to refer you(from your local clinic) to a specialist doctor(at a hospital) for more advanced check-ups. So, I’ve just been told that I now have to wait for a few months, because there are hundreds of people on the waiting list.

Why are hundreds of people on the waiting list? Because hospitals have been closed to everyone except Covid19 patients and those other immediate emergencies(like heart attacks, strokes or accidents).

In normal times, you wouldn’t get hundreds of people on the waiting list. There are only a few people(10, 20, 30 maybe), and your turn comes in about 2-3 weeks, maximum. But now, it’s a chaos.

Imagine all those hundreds of people who had to wait because the hospitals were all in lockdown, but only at 10% capacity(while doctors and nurses were doing Tik Tok videos). Now, there are tens of thousands of people whose health situation has aggravated in the 4 months of lockdown, many of whom have already died.

Fine, I said, I’ll go private. I asked my local GP to write me a letter so I can go to a private hospital.

Surprise, surprise. All private hospitals are closed to the general public, and they only receive Covid patients which never arrived because even the state hospitals were at 10% capacity. So, the private hospitals were forced to stay closed (on a government “crisis” order) all this period because they were hoping the public hospitals would get full of Covid patients and then send the extra Covid patients to those private hospitals. That never happened.

And that’s how 90% of hospitals(both public and private) stay empty during the lockdown while people are dying to get an appointment for any check-up or surgery or treatment or anything else.

So, there are 40.000 dead people of Covid19 in the #UK. I’m not even getting into how correct these numbers are.

But what you don’t know is that the government is also tracking the collateral deaths, the excess deaths caused by the lockdown: people who couldn’t get their cancer screenings, diabetes tests, surgeries, heart attacks, strokes, and what not.

So, the government stats counted 45.000 collateral deaths. That’s more than Covid deaths!! These are people who could have been saved from treatable conditions. But they were not given health care because doctors were fearing that they would get infected with Covid19, so they refused to even see those patients. Many patients died anyway.

More surprising, nobody seems outraged at these 45.000 deaths, clear evidence, government’s own data. The media is silent. Private activists are silent too, probably stupidly oblivious. Even the families of those 45k dead people are silent, probably, in disdain and surrender. I think I’m the only outraged one.

On top of this, Cancer Research UK, estimates that the cancer deaths will increase by 20.000 as well, at least, by the end of this year due to the fact that many people were not able to detect their cancer in due time.

Luckily, I’m all good, but I’m thinking of all the people who are not as lucky or as young and healthy as I am. Pray to God you won’t end up in a situation like this in which you’ll be at the mercy of bureaucrats.

On top of that, we have thousands of people protesting in the streets like there’s no tomorrow, prolonging this Covid crisis and lockdown for tens of thousands of ill people who truly need care.

But you don’t see this on TV. And I bet you didn’t know about the collateral deaths. And just because you’re in a different country with lower Covid deaths, it doesn’t mean you haven’t got loads of collateral deaths (most countries don’t even count the collateral deaths). But you have no idea about this. You’re only outraged at what the media wants you to be outraged: the topic of the day.

We have to fucking decide: do we keep the lockdown and disband all those protesters, or do we stop the lockdown and get back to our normal lives (including protests, which I’d be fine with otherwise).
Why the fuck are we staying in limbo like this?

How much do black lives matter?

Do Black lives really matter for the hysterical agitprop organizations who now pretend to be outraged over the death of the career criminal George Floyd?

Thousands of Black Christians are killed annually in Africa by Islamic terrorist organizations. Has anyone taken this issue to the streets? Any protests in Europe or North America against the savages that put out this gruesome spectacle of murder year after year? We could indeed say that quite the opposite is the case as many of those savages were then welcomed into Europe.

The most recent genocide in history took place in Rwanda in 1994. Just three weeks ago Félicien Kabuga – one of those who planned and led the Rwandan Genocide was finally apprehended in Paris. The genocide was planned by Black Africans, executed by Black Africans. Hutus killing the Tutsis. The Left was silent then and is silent now too. The news about the arrest of one of those responsible didn’t make the headlines.

In many parts of Africa slavery is still a thing today. People are still being sold in markets in Nigeria and Libya yet nobody protests against such a horrific practice. Wealthy Arabs in the Persian Gulf still own slaves today but, once again, none of the organizations that are now claiming to fight for “Black liberation” have anything to say about this. It could be because the slave-owning Qataris actually pay for some of these protests.

In the minds of the people protesting – it’s African Americans (all 37+ million of them) that are suffering the worst – but not those Africans who are being held in slavery by those who fund the protests.

Genital mutilation of both boys and girls is still being practiced on a large scale in Africa. The victims are, of course, black girls and boys.

Random boys are being kidnapped on the streets of Uganda, Kenya or the Republic of South Africa and forcibly subjected to genital mutilation. Many of them end up dead as a result of the procedure which the “international community” and the “tolerant left” ignore or even approve.

Girls at least get some attention. Articles and reports from international organizations have been published about the gruesome terror to which girls are being subjected via genital mutilation – yet, despite some slightly more attention, there is not much fighting against this cruelty.

Then there’s Boko Haram which kidnaps girls and kills boys. At least for the girls there was, at some point, a cute hashtag – #BringBackOurGirls. Then FLOTUS Michelle Obama made a cute photo-op with it. And? Well, and nothing. The thousands of Black Lives destroyed by Boko Haram did not animate any mass protest – neither in Europe nor in the United States.

Now, that’s okay. One is entitled not to care. But don’t come around then and tell us how much Black Lives Matter for you from Sweden, or Norway, or Bulgaria. They don’t. Because the purpose of the Black Lives Matter brouhaha is not the protection of Black Lives. And likely never has been.

The list of horrors inflicted upon black people in Africa at the behest of Islam or Socialism long after the end of colonialism is very long – yet it’s clearly not of interest for those who claim Black Lives Matter. And that’s because it’s not about black lives – it’s about the destruction of America and all that she stands for. Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness is what’s bothering most of y’all. Black Lives is just the excuse du jour.

Yeah, yeah, I know – you claim “intersectional solidarity” and that you want to destroy “capitalism” – but we all know that’s bollocks.

So, can we please cut the crap? K? Thanks.

Article inspired by a post from Father Coman.

Corona economy: The great V-illusion

Despite Corona – everything remains as it is? The Federal Government is busily trying to keep this illusion alive with triple-digit billions. But this social autosuggestion is becoming more and more fragile, the consequences more and more threatening.

The letter V stands for Maybe, Probably. Mistakes are unavoidable, admits health minister Jens Spahn frankly, and that is an admission that is rarely honest for politicians in Germany. “That we will probably have to forgive each other a lot in a few months, […] because never before in the history of the Federal Republic – and perhaps even beyond – have we had to make such far-reaching decisions in such a short time and under such circumstances, with the knowledge that is available and with the imponderables that are there. In fact, knowledge about corona is limited – and also about the consequences of a pandemic and a global shutdown. If you know more, cast the first stone.

In uncertainty one clings to historical experience. For the German government, this is the financial crisis. In 2008, there was a lockdown of the banks that no longer granted credit, became insolvent by the dozen. But without money and credit, the finely ramified network of payment flows collapses. At that time, Germany, the USA and other countries reacted with billions of euros to make the bankrupt banks liquid again.

Germany responded to the threat of unemployment by expanding short-time work and implementing an economic stimulus package – some of the construction sites for the autobahn or the railroad are still open today. The economic crash followed the shape of the V – steep fall, but also rapid rise, which even overcompensated for the slump in growth and, even faster than optimists expected, repaid the national debt via higher tax revenues. With astonishing routine and speed, the federal government activated the plans of that time – and added an additional zero or even several behind the programs.

By April 22 this year, some 718,000 companies, or one in three companies in Germany, had registered for short-time work. Germany thus spends 60% of its total annual economic output on subsidies, as of the end of April. This is a record figure – in terms of economic output, it is five times as much as in the USA; three times as much as Italy or Great Britain spend, more than twice as much as France. The expectation is clear: even if the number of short-time workers is 20 or 30 times higher than during the financial crisis – the recovery will be all the faster once the lockdown is over, if the factories can simply be restarted because the employees are waiting for it. A country is put into an artificial sleep, and the prince’s kiss awakens Sleeping Beauty from her sleep again. That is the theory behind the lockdown.

But what if the prince is delayed, the life-support measures become more and more expensive and last longer and longer, and the kiss does not work immediately? Or economically speaking – when the V becomes the L, i.e. with a prolonged period of weakness after the crash, or even to a stairway down? Then there would be a Spahn mistake – well meant, but done the wrong thing – sorry, economy, pity, society – stupidly done.

Did it go badly?

And it could go pretty badly. The state is currently compensating for the lack of demand – short-time work is being increased even further, bridging money is being paid out, special programmes for hotels and restaurants are being set up, companies like Adidas are being kept alive with 2.5 billion, and Lufthansa is happy to do a little more. The state’s resources are unlimited, promises Finance Minister Olaf Scholz – a bold claim. Hobby economists, for example, from DIE ZEIT, explain that Finance Minister Olaf Scholz does not take away anyone’s funds for short-time work – because taxes are only borrowed, so to speak: If the recipients of short-time work benefits are busy shopping, the business gets going again and in the end everyone wins, including the taxpayers fleeced for it. It is as simple as that.

It is the old Keynesian dream that the state could simply compensate for temporary gaps in demand, supplemented by the “New Monetary Economy”: because the states have long been over-indebted, just as Italy was unable to finance its interest rates even before Corona, the European Central Bank has to pump money into the cycle. Corona is also passing away, the economy only exists if you give it enough money. It really works – if citizens do not become suspicious, do not lose faith in Baron Münchhausen pulling himself out of the swamp by his own hair.

But what if he doesn’t? What if the next consumption frenzy is not only postponed – but cancelled because people do not believe in eternal money from the state? It could be that the Germans are saving because they don’t trust the end of Corona and are preparing for a second wave, at least with savings. If the purchase of the car is simply put off for a long time; cars age hardly functionally, rather aesthetically. When operations are not postponed, but do not take place at all, and the artificial knee is dispensed with, the washing machine is repaired again instead of being replaced, and the move to the larger apartment is postponed for the time being? When the factory is not expanded or renewed, at best expensive labour is rationalised away?

And that is exactly what many companies are planning: Downsize, downsize, rationalize. Jobs are shaky, fear is growing. The IAB, the scientific service of the Federal Employment Agency, is talking about three million unemployed and a drop in the workforce of millions more. So far, all the research institutes have underestimated the force of the downturn – simply because it does not fit into their models, which can only be designed to update the figures but not to break them down. It is more realistic to expect five or even more millions of unemployed people to collect support and become taxpayers and contributors. Or six? Or seven?

How is it going globally after Corona?

The cool calculation and concern of millions of people, economic decision-makers and investors is driven by future expectations; it is speculation about the uncertain future. How long will Corona stay, not only in Germany, but also around it? When the future seems vague and uncertain, people wait instead of consuming, reduce instead of invest, reduce instead of build. Then the state can always stuff new billions into pockets, it stays in there. Technically speaking, this reduces the speed at which money circulates. There is more money, but it doesn’t circulate – the economy falters. And the future of demand seems uncertain: Why should entrepreneurs invest and perhaps be liable with the remainder of their private assets when the SPD is constantly talking about tax increases, asset levies and redistribution? The phrase “let’s wait and see” then becomes an economic killer, triggered by slogans thrown down by people like Saskia Esken, the SPD chairwoman. Maybe it may be possible to get things going again in Germany – but are German taxes enough to keep the concrete castles on the Costa Brava or in Mallorca and Greece going? If there is any doubt that economic stimulus packages can save the domestic economy – they certainly won’t be enough for the whole of Europe.

Germany’s export orientation is now the Achilles’ heel of the economy – it lives from investment in factories in China, from exports to southern Europe, which are paid for with the money that German holidaymakers leave on sunny beaches. The worldwide falling oil price is a warning signal: oil lubricates the economy, is a raw material that is in every product, in the potato in the form of fertilizer and tractor fuel, in every chemical product, in every form of mobility. Worldwide, the demand for oil is falling because the demand for products has collapsed. It is a crisis indicator of a deflationary process.

Deflation means that prices are falling. This makes life pleasant for the consumer, but hell for the producers: Who wants to invest and produce when the selling price is constantly falling – in the case of oil on the futures markets, even becoming negative? The economists of the European Central Bank fear deflation far more than inflation. That is why zero and negative interest rates have been introduced, an inflation target of two per cent has been set and this is being pursued with all permitted and unpermitted means of monetary policy, just not to get deflation going. If prices fall, the economy will freeze: it will be worth bunkering money instead of spending or even investing.

But that is exactly where the global economy stands: falling demand worldwide causes prices to fall. This mechanism works quickly: the prices for real estate in the German conurbations are already falling. Are there fewer people in Germany? No. It’s just that many dreams of bigger living spaces have been shattered. Or postponed. If the department stores are only allowed to open again, then there will be discount battles – the summer goods will be squandered until they are given away, because otherwise there will definitely not be another summer for the dealers. Many will open one last time, for the last sale. A wave of bankruptcies in the already ailing retail trade in the city centres is threatening – Amazon was the pre-existing illness, Corona the death sentence.

The caution of consumers and the pessimistic expectations of entrepreneurs combine to form a poisonous mixture that renders any economic stimulus program of the federal government ineffective. The phrase “not at first” absorbs every economic stimulus program and makes it ineffective.

The supply shock is yet to come

Allegedly the German showpiece industry, the car manufacturers, are trying to increase production again. Instead of short-time work benefits, the state is then supposed to artificially heat up the demand for cars; the use of state money therefore continues without end for the time being. But that will not be so easy. A German car company has about 100,000 suppliers worldwide. Some of them no longer exist. A chip, a plastic part, a piece of sheet metal, steel or fabric is missing, because the supplier is possibly located in Italy or Spain and cannot yet produce, the truck is stopped at a border, the delivery from China takes too long, or the manufacturer has long since gone bankrupt.

Even in the Chinese birthplace of the pandemic, Wuhan, the factories are being restarted – but there is no demand from Europe or the USA. Technically, they may be able to produce – but nobody orders them. How do Daimler and VW plan to sell cars in, say, Minnesota or Michigan, if the showrooms are nailed up and the dealers are broke? How will they build engines if the crankshaft does not arrive from Spain? Just in time production, offshoring, squeezing every last cent out of the supply chain and specializing in the smallest detail – the recipes for success of the past decades are just poison pills.

It’s downright macabre: Hans-Werner Sinn has called this “bazaar economy” – Germany buys cheap preliminary products worldwide, plugs them up and sells them at a premium as “Made in Germany”. The model is now ailing. And yes, the backsourcing of strategic goods such as mouthguards and medicines may be right, automotive suppliers can be replaced – but someone has to pay for that. Who pays is the consumers. Not all prices will fall as a result. Some will rise.

Deflation and inflation simultaneously

Vegetables are already becoming more expensive; peppers up to 40 percent; asparagus is becoming a luxury again. There is a lack of harvest workers from Morocco in Spain and from Romania in Germany. Those who are not there to harvest are also absent when planting. Goods whose purchase cannot be postponed without problems become more expensive. There are also opportunities. If Majorca as a holiday destination – it is also cooler, the Baltic seaside resorts should soon be crowded, if they are allowed. Ruhpolding will experience guests from the Ruhr area, who have stayed away since the late 60s. Even the shanty towns on the Rhine, Bingen and Rüdesheim and Unkel will be frequented again; perhaps even the Harz Mountains and perhaps Traben-Trarbach will experience a short, second spring like the Emperor’s Bath in Ems before 1914. Today, it attracts visitors to places they did not want to go for a long time. Inflationary and deflationary processes run side by side. But because the supply is gradually narrowing, prices start to rise earlier rather than later.

A ghost is haunting: Stagflation

And because the V thus becomes the L, sooner rather than later Germany’s rescue formula will also be in crisis: the SPD would like to raise taxes and will probably push it through – but there are hardly any high incomes and payers left who could be fleeced. Wealth tax? The secret tip of the left and the Greens is leeward.

Article written by German journalist and chairman of the Ludwig Erhard Foundation, Roland Tichy.
Original version, in German at: https://www.tichyseinblick.de/tichys-einblick/wirtschaft-nach-corona-die-grosse-v-illusion/