“Inclusive” language is dehumanizing

In my house live my pregnant wife and my son. Not my partner and my offspring. And no, we aren’t pregnant; my wife is.

According to the social engineers of the current year(s), we’re pregnant is cute and an expression of togetherness. That would be hilarious if it weren’t weird and dehumanizing. If I get a prostate cancer, everyone can rest assured that my wife won’t be fighting it. She can’t. And that’s okay. Just like it’s okay that I’m not pregnant because I can’t.

A few days ago, another group of social engineers published a new “study” on how to re-educate Latin Americans into accepting being called Latinx. I showed this to my Venezuelan colleague. And, before you ask, yes he is one of the Venezuelans who immigrated to Hungary allegedly in secrecy. So secretly that the media wrote about it. Anyway, suffice to say that my very well-educated Venezuelan colleague didn’t react quite well to being told by a gringo that he’s uneducated because he doesn’t accept the mutilation of his native tongue or that he’s a bad person because he doesn’t accept the inherent dehumanization that comes with so-called inclusive language.

This may not seem like an important issue, even though it’s in top 3 issues that may lose the Democrats the election in a week. But it’s important enough for those of us who, because of our work, have to stumble upon and sometimes work with these pendejos – the people who put their pronouns in their signatures (even though nobody asked), the people who write Bauarbeiter:innen unironically in German, todxs in Spanish and, of course, weird pronouns and the already known crap present in English.

Now, the good news is that those “culture warriors” (for lack of a better term) have managed to meaningfully push back at least in some corners, but it’s simply not enough. And one way to improve this is to emphasize to the normies how they’re being dehumanized by this.

One thing I’ve learned from the Sofa is that arguing logically with these extremists is pointless. What works is convincing the audience that what these loons propose is evil and deranged. And on this issue, the shortest way to do exactly that is to re-frame the whole discussion in these terms: The whole idea is dehumanizing.

Yes, it requires a bit of an appeal to emotion (like done in the first paragraph) but is it really appeal to emotion if it’s also true? That’s rhetorical, because ultimately it doesn’t matter. The real world is not the Oxford Debate Society as the boss is fond of saying.

The argument

Every time you use “inclusive language” you are purposefully minimizing and arguably dehumanizing the normal and normative Majority (capital M necessary here) without actually being inclusive at all.

My wife is certainly not more “included” when referred to as part of Lehrer*innen (teachers in “inclusive” German). And certainly the minority of male teachers aren’t more included either by being referred to as part of an awfully written concept that uses the feminine termination. And there is zero evidence that the 3 to 5 “transgender” teachers in the German-speaking world are suddenly more “included” because the way you say/write “teachers” has now been mutilated.

Peak-dehumanization happens when this ideology seeps into very concrete conversations – like those about sex. Including with confused teenagers.

A few months ago me and my wife were at a party with a truly diverse crowd – the diversity that matters, that is. And sometime late at night as a few of us were chatting and, as it always happens when it’s after 2AM and everyone has had a bit to drink, the conversation eventually drifted to politics and then to sex and sexuality. Nothing wrong with that, we’re all adults and since me and my missus are known to be sex positive, it’s no surprise (to us) that eventually such topics would be inserted into the conversation because even those who disagree with us yearn to talk with a truly sex positive couple.

But it wasn’t the disagreement that triggered my ire and the bigger ire from my wife – but the language.

At some point we were chatting about sex ed in the family as most attendees were parents of teenagers or tweens. It was already bad enough that the more lefty-inclined were using therapy language and ideologically charged terms as we were discussing whether the recent fads among the youth are really new or we’ve just become more open about discussing these things. But all hell broke loose with my missus when a British woman interjected:

Of course, it will be different for those who raise a person doing the penetration.

I was still thinking of a witty way to reply in such a way that mocks the very thought process that led to someone uttering such a string of words but, by the time my thought process could come up with something in a language I’m not that good at, my wife had already taken the initiative, showing once again that it’s men and women not bonus holes and persons doing the penetration. I mean… nobody insults a woman better than another woman!

Again, we were all adults, so the whole interaction eventually led to a very profound discussion about ideological poisoning and possession but, even so, the fact that someone seemingly intelligent can refer to our sons as the person doing the penetration got me thinking: How many such people are there? And how many of them are in position to educate our children?

Maybe there aren’t that many (I still cling to optimism) but if someone like me, effectively apolitical until three years ago, can encounter straight-up Reddit type of ideological language out there “in the wild”, then there must be more than a few of such people.

Why it matters

A Moldovan was saying 5 years ago, referring to russian-derived calques that are mutilating the Romanian language: The person who speaks badly definitely thinks badly – and will inevitably act badly.

There are of course many more quotes (some of them mis-attributed, some outright false) that convey the same meaning: Whoever controls the language, eventually controls thought. At least in part.

And this is why it matters. Adults fooling around at a private party at 2AM in Budapest, especially adults who could afford to fly in for the event and also afford families or other arrangements so they can leave their kid(s) safely behind – that is not an issue.

However, adults fooling around perverting descriptive language around children, is an issue. And it’s quite hard to argue that it isn’t. Because children learn through imitation.

My son is never late because he sees his father always striving to never be late. My nephew is always a bit late because, just like his father, my dear brother, he is more approximate with time management.

My son speaks politely because he saw his parents always speak politely first. My son will also unleash a torrent of highly creative insults if you piss him off needlessly because that’s what he saw his parents do. My son will also effortlessly stand up for himself in most situations because that’s what his parents and most of his peers do (and we made an active effort to handpick those peers, once again contrary to the “wisdom” shared online incessantly).

Children’s minds are easily impressionable. That’s why how we act around children matters. It’s not the be all and end all in every situation, like helicopter parents would have you believe, but it’s also not inconsequential as modernity tries to convince us all, parents and childless alike.

Oh, by the way, the word childless is now bad too. Apparently, the “inclusive” way is to say childfree. Am I the only one who notices the inherent dehumanization of the word childfree? It has the same undertone as cancer-free. Maybe I’m overthinking this, but it simply is dehumanizing to describe lack of life (because that’s what childlessness is) as inherently positive.

Advocates of “inclusivity” tell us that childless carries a negative connotation. But it doesn’t. Unfruitfulness, infecundity, barenness – all these have (arguably) a negative or at least judgmental connotation. But childless does not. It’s the neutral term. But under the dehumanizing ideology of inclusivity, neutral terms are bad.

That’s why we should use the dehumanizing angle more when pushing back against inclusive language. If not for ourselves, at least for our children.

I don’t want my son to dehumanize his future wife by calling her partner. In the language of Internet kids: that’s gay af. No, seriously, it is. And not just because the pendej@s say so, but because anyone who was alive in pre-history, let’s say 2010, can remember that the word partner to refer to one’s romantic partner was nearly exclusive to homosexuals. If you ask me, even that was dehumanizing. But extending that to everyone, is even more dehumanizing.

I don’t want my son to be dehumanized in the future by having his reality erased and replaced with “people of any gender”.

And, if my wife ends up giving birth to a baby girl, I’d very much like for her to be called a woman, not a bonus hole. And preferably to become a wife not a partner. She can become a business partner if she’s smart enough, but she’ll be someone’s girlfriend and someone’s wife.

Inclusive language, at best, sows confusion. It’s dehumanizing in the rest of the time.

And hopefully more people notice that and act accordingly. It’s not even hard. Oftentimes it takes under a minute. Like this:

Someone else: My partner doesn’t feel good about the vacation.
You: Oh, there’s more to work and you can’t go on vacation?
SE: No, we both secured the free days, but there are other concerns.
You: What do you mean secured freed days? You’re both leaving the company? Who’s going to take care of business?
SE:…
You: Aren’t you talking about your business partner?

And, just like that, you made someone else re-think about using partner in the wrong context.

You don’t always have to be an edgy culture warrior. You just always have to be normal. And, if you are a man, especially a father, you also have the duty to enforce normality around you as well. If not for yourself, at least for your child(ren). They deserve not to grow up among confused people and risk ending up confused themselves.

How are Tours chosen and what to expect in 2025 and beyond

With less than 2 months till the Latin American Tour and with three more rounds of elections in my backyard, there’s more pressure on my time than ever. The first two episodes of the Khmer Tour are now out, while in the background I’m working at the next Podcast, all while hunting intra-South-American flights to navigate less than 3 months ago. It’s… crowded.

And amid this, I just got the 200th (?!) message asking when I’ll do X country. So why not explain why and when that will (not) happen? So, without further ado:

The criteria

The following don’t have to be met simultaneously, but at least some will have to be met for me to consider – especially if I’m going to involve y’all.

  • Accessible and free enough. Some countries are simply inaccessible – like Algeria. The procedure to get in is so much of a headache that it’s simply not worth bothering. Then there are countries that are somewhat accessible but simply not free enough – like Turkmenistan or North Korea. By “free enough” I mean be able to walk around and talk to people. It doesn’t have to be a liberal democracy (I’ve done 4 autocracies in a row in the last 2 years and this year I’ll do a hybrid regime and an underdeveloped dangerous democracy) – but it has to be free enough that I don’t have to ask for approval every 3 minutes.
  • Tolerable levels of danger. Well, this one is subjective. I went to Ukraine several times since the beginning of the war – but it’s Ukraine. A place that I know really well and know how to navigate in any circumstance. Meanwhile, in theory, Iraq these days is less dangerous than Ukraine. But, in practice, I wouldn’t do Iraq today, even though I’d really like to (more on that later).
  • Past totalitarian experience or present authoritarian experience. Self explanatory – almost all in the last decade fit this one.
  • Reasonably priced. Of course, this is relative, but resources aren’t infinite either. And that includes time, not just money. For instance, a trip to India may really not be too expensive, but it would require 2 months at the very least. That’s a “price” too steep. Alternatively, I’d have to settle for a casual and common type of thing which would last less but would also defeat the purpose. Every series like this is meant to intentionally go where most don’t (and not just geographically).
  • Preferably less touristy. Where everyone goes, I don’t want to go. Sometimes that’s unavoidable, but most of the time it’s easy. If one wants touristy stuff, this isn’t the place.
  • Is or has been in the news recently. Sweden 2020 and Ecuador 2024 fit this one nicely. Sometimes the opportunity arises to go beyond the headlines in a way most can’t or won’t.
  • Preferably next to a country I’ve never been. Whenever there’s two countries involved, one of them has to be a country that I know and have been to in the past. The reason is simple: Escape route. See 20 tips for solo travelers. This is particularly important for places that are far away from Europe and far away from a friendly embassy. If things go rough, it may be impossible to fly back to Europe on a whim (even if budget is available), but running to the neighboring country is usually possible even in the most dire circumstances. Ideally, I must know the neighboring country to a certain extent.

There are also some smaller ones that may tilt the balance but, by and large, the criteria above is how I make the decision.

And this makes it easy to list what’s possible in the future.

What I hope to be possible soon

Myanmar. The junta there is losing ground in the civil war. I’m seriously hoping to be able to do Myanmar in 2026. It will make for one hell of a series of stories (especially after you hear the Khmer Series). The recent history of Burma/Myanmar is, politically speaking, crazy. In a way that very few other places can compare.

Vietnam. Ideally, in conjunction with Myanmar. Some issues about Vietnam are/will be discussed in the Khmer Series – but the logical conclusion will be getting there. However, I wouldn’t go just to ‘Nam. But ‘Nam as backup while exploring post-junta Myanmar? Sign me up!

Iraq. I was just going to settle for Iraq for 2024 but in August 2023 the security situation went insane again. Quite unfortunate because Baghdad is one of the ancient cities of the world and it’s so full of stories that nobody is telling. Besides, the politics of Iraq is in itself fascinating to study. If things don’t improve by the end of the decade, I’ll probably try some surrogate – like paying for some of the contacts to show up in Türkiye or something. We’ll see what happens.

Ethiopia. I’ve been there several times but exploring Ethiopia more deeply is something I’ve been craving for a long while. And finally, when the opportunity was clear,… a civil war broke out. The security situation right now is still pretty bad. Sure, not extreme, but I don’t have a known country around. Ethiopia is the known country. I was hoping to connect with Djibouti (with the CCP clown train) and maybe dabble a bit into the stories of the Yemeni refugees there. The potential for greatness of such a series is self-evident. Hopefully I live long enough to actually make it.

Senegal. This place is rarely in the news. Mostly because it doesn’t fit the stereotype. Senegal had a profound constitutional crisis last year and throughout the first months of 2024. But, unlike most others in the region, the (previously thought of as) fragile democracy survived. And that is one of the reasons it’s politically interesting here. The bottom-up struggles to keep the balance of power is not the kind of story you expect to hear from West-Africa.

Mali. This was under consideration for 2025 but then Wagner PMC showed up in Mali. And then more Islamist separatists. And then more clusterfuck. So… for now… Mali will have to wait. At least in terms of exploring with a camera.

El Salvador & Guatemala. This will probably be 2026, tbh. El Salvador is in the news for its eccentric but so far really effective president and Guatemala is also a story of a country that cleaned itself up but whose story didn’t shine through the news. They’re well connected to each other and it’s doable.

Argentina. Ideally, I’d do Argentina in 2027 or 2028. After all, the reason people write to me to do Argentina is the Milei administration. Well… in politics the effects are not immediate. It would make for a more comprehensive story (positive or negative – we don’t know yet) if a bit more time passes. Javier Milei has been in power for just 8 months. Let’s give him time before making any pronouncements.

Chile. In the past, Chile had a reputation of being expensive. But… not anymore. The Pinochetian history alone makes it worthwhile, but also the current politics of Chile is full of quirks that the global news barely scratched the surface on. Hopefully this one will be possible – though I admit it’s not a priority.

Indonesia. Almost 12 million people visited Indonesia in 2023. Almost 95% of them went to one single place – Bali. But Indonesia is also the largest Muslim country in the world. 1 in 7 Muslims in the world is Indonesian. As the biggest demographic player in dar al Islam, Indonesia’s recent history is key to understanding where the Islamic civilization is heading towards. And that matters given that it’s the fastest growing religion and will remain so for the rest of the century.

Bosnia. Not a priority, but one day I’ll have to do this. The politics of Bosnia is a level of clownery even most Europeans have no idea of.

What I’d love, but won’t happen

In Romania there is a say: Beautiful country, too bad it’s inhabited/governed. Well… there are quite a few of those in the world.

Iran. That’s a place I won’t explore with a camera as long as the Islamic Republic exists. But should that fall, forget about the lists. I’m in the next flight to Tehran!

Russia. Haven’t been there in a long while. And I doubt I’ll go anytime soon. But if not for the insane federal government, there are several portions of Russia that are in fact beautiful and have great local stories. The area round Lake Baikal would be great to visit without the current regime. Left to their own devices, the people there can be quite lovely. And their stories… oh man… their stories. I could just leave the camera on and chat for a few hours with a few locals over some booze. Without the censorship and fear, such a thing would make for mindblowing videos. Same thing: if the current iteration of russia goes out… I’m heading there.

DPRK. Self-explanatory. If the regime in Pyongyang falls, I’m there soon after. It won’t be cheap, but it will be history. Realistically, I have more chances at doing Russia than DPRK. But let’s hope I’m wrong 🙏🏻

Sudan and South Sudan. The politics of that region is even crazier than Myanmar. But, unlike Myanmar, there’s a slim chance I’ll live long enough for these two to be good enough for visiting.

Venezuela. In fact, if the Maduro regime had fallen this week, I would’ve switched Ecuador for Venezuela right now. That didn’t happen so… Venezuela will have to wait. Still,… doing an immediately post-communist country is something that I hope to live long enough to do. The Chavistas have been in power for about the same amount of time as Ceaușescu so… it’ll be pretty comparable.

What’s unlikely but doable

India. I get a query about India at least 5 times a year. Doing India would require 2 or 3 months. Not only because it’s a huge place, but also because over the years I worked with a lot of fine Indians and if they’d find out I stepped foot in their country and didn’t make contact with them, they’ll be upset. But the cost of doing India right is simply too high and will remain too high for many years to come. Even if all the expenses were to be covered, being on the other side of the planet for 3 months is a hard ask. I’d do it. But… not now.

Brazil. Navigating Brazil is crazily expensive. With the cost of doing 3 weeks in Brazil I can do something bigger, nicer and more profound somewhere else. Including somewhere else in Latin America.

Saudi Arabia. Maybe after 2035 😂. Let’s just leave it at that.

China (PRC). Seriously, stop querying me about this. It ain’t happening. Unless this happens. Though even then I’d be reluctant. Too big of a place.

Of course, I didn’t cover everything but, by and large, that’s the thinking process right now. Of course, all of it could change depending on so many factors – from sudden political change, outbreak (or stopping) of a war and, of course, the opinions of the Donors’ Circle.

So… to honor the title…

O’zbekiston-Tojikiston 2025

The Central Asia Series brought more diverse and far more interesting feedback than I expected. Meanwhile… I ran out of footage for quite a few other stories and facets.

So… since I now know the place, why not finish the story?

The idea is to hit what I missed in Uzbekistan – namely Khiva, Nukus (Karakalpakstan), Andijan and Namangan. The latter two being of interest as the intellectual origin of several Islamist groups, the political point of origin of the Karimov regime and the current focal point of bilateral economic development with… Tadjikistan.

Tadjikistan has gotten in the news lately for allegedly banning the hijab. But… not really. It’s… quite a bit more complicated. Still… to get to videotape in practice what an attempt at Kemalization looks like in a Persian(!) nation… that’s a once in a lifetime opportunity.

Financially, this should be viable fairly easily. Logistically… er… I’ll figure something out, as always. The language barrier will be an issue too. But, by and large, getting back to Central Asia is just good policy at this point, all things considered.

Also, it will be quite relevant to see how the unfolding of Russia’s war will have changed things by next autumn. Not just to test hypotheses/predictions but also to see the effects. I betcha they’ll be noticeable. Especially in the north-east of O’zbekiston and in Dushanbe.

Oh… and Tajikistan may have a new leader by then. Who knows? Maybe I catch the inauguration.

Either way, there’s more stories in these two countries that I haven’t had the chance to tell. And given your feedback, I’ll head out to find ways to tell them.

So… yeah. That’s a rough estimate on what calculations are going on in the background when making such decisions. I’m not complaining. It’s a good problem to have. After all, it will soon be 10 years (!) of the Sofa. That in itself is a good problem to have.

But what I am saying is that every time I’m being asked “when X country/place” the answer is… well… it’s a bit more complicated than that. So I just provided the basics of the process. Hopefully that clears things up a little bit.

So… with that said, I’ll head back to work. In the meantime, please consider supporting the Colombia-Ecuador tour. I’ve gotten all the flights but it’s still in doubt all the objectives on the list are doable, given the current state of the fundraiser. Every dollar counts!

See ya soon.

Expert-skepticism as a political philosophy

The legislature in the Great State of Florida passed legislation that bans lab-grown meat and governor DeSantis just signed it into law. In under 24 hours, with the ink on the bill not dry yet, the whole Expert class published long walls of text explaining to us, mere mortals, why Florida is wrong. Scientific American called it evidence free. While the BBC titled the story as Ron DeSantis bans ‘global elite’ lab-grown meat – misleadingly suggesting that this is somehow DeSantis’ idea (it’s not), that Florida is somehow unique in this endeavor (it’s not) and that such a policy is the purview of conspiracist loons with fantasies about a global elite (it’s not). Oh, and let’s not forget the usual gaslighting – Why Florida banned a kind of meat that doesn’t really exist (If it doesn’t exist and it’s not happening, then why are you upset?). This reminds us about the bans on pornographic material in schools also passed by Florida legislature. We were told it’s silly because pornography doesn’t exist in public schools. As it turned out, it did exist. The same is true here: Lab-grown meat in fact does exist and is already being sold in the United States.

But the most important dynamic can be observed on Twitter X, where all of the techno-optimist shills influential accounts have nearly the same message. In fact three messages:

  • right wingers are bad because they’re not techno-optimists
  • right wingers are just like leftists because they ban stuff
  • right wingers have been bribed by Big Meat to pass a protectionist measure

The first two are utterly ridiculous because being a techno-optimist is not some universally understood moral good (quite the opposite, I would argue) and banning stuff doesn’t make one a leftist. As Milton Friedman was saying – to see if an idea holds water, take it to the limits. So, if banning stuff makes one a leftist, does that mean we shouldn’t be banning murder? If yes, then maybe being a leftist isn’t a bad thing. If banning murder doesn’t make one a leftist, then maybe banning stuff isn’t in and of itself a leftist position.

The third message of the big accounts on X is the classical conspiracism that’s fashionable in pseudo-elite circles. You see, the people who hate you don’t think you actually hold the policy positions you say you hold, even if you live them out and lead by example. In their mind, you, the pleb, are merely manipulated or straight-up bought-off by moneyed interests that happen to be in competition with them. So, in this case, people who support the lab meat ban are simply hunters or farmers who bought-off the politicians to protect their own interests.

The beauty of Twitter X, however, is that regular plebs can talk back and, as it turns out, few of them are farmers, let alone Big Meat representatives yet they either agree with Florida’s new policy, or slowly come to agree with it judging by who is against it.

So who is against Florida’s new policy? Techno-optimists, experts, vegans, investors in lab meat technology and the most ridiculous libertines with a fetish to being contrarians at all costs (some of those people’s hard drives and bank accounts should be audited, but that’s a story for another day). What to these have in common? They’re all very likely to support policy that makes the lives of regular people worse. They are, in internet lingo, non-frens.

In favor of the policy there’s mostly regular people (including more and more nominal leftists and liberals) whose political thinking is slowly evolving into something not named yet. I called it “expert-skepticism” but it could just as easily be called pro-science if that brand hadn’t already been confiscated by people who are anything but.

The screeching by the Experts isn’t landing anymore. In fact, more and more people straight-up say: If the Experts say lab grown meat is good, then it’s probably bad or at the very least not really that good.

Quite a lot of people are bringing up the experience with the pandemic hysteria – a topic where DeSantis’ skepticism was undoubtedly the superiour policy prescription and a topic the Experts would really love for all the rest of us to forget. Trouble is that and we won’t forget it precisely because it’s a moment where it was self-evident for almost everyone that the Experts are not just wrong, but malicious as well.

Just like with the Covid shots, the actual science on lab-grown meat is dubious. There’s reasonable concern that the end product might be suboptimal. There is also some proof that it may indeed be dangerous. Maybe these concerns are unfounded. But nobody can say yet and those who claim otherwise have a vested interest (be it ideological or financial) and thus can’t be trusted.

But those who support Florida’s measure don’t really care that much about the science behind it – nor should they. The very idea that we should do policy based on what marginal nerds think is preposterous. The opinion of scientists should be consulted occasionally when it’s absolutely required. This is not the case here.

Most people who support Florida’s measure are applying good ol’ fashioned common sense and experience. The government already tried to take away my freedoms based on flimsy “science” twice in the last 5 years: Once with the Covid shots and once with the silly car bans that include garden mowers in California or “green new deal” type of lunacy that created hundreds of thousands of new homeless people just in Germany alone – all on the altar of The Cimate and all based on dodgy science. So, under these conditions, those urging me, Joe the Voter, to now embrace lab grown meat have simply no credibility and, heuristically speaking, it is more likely than not that the correct decision is to do the opposite of what they advise.

Moreover, it doesn’t take a genius or a Harvard PhD to know that psychological reactance is a real phenomenon and that most people make decisions based on disgust. In the case of lab grown meat, not only is the disgust justified, but it just so happens to align with a lot of other interests (including the interest of real science itself).

Should obscure, unelected, unaccountable, billionaire-subsidized interests be allowed to experiment on our food supply? Enough people say no. You may disagree, but if the choice is between allowing lab grown meat unrestricted and banning it – the latter is the sensible choice in a context where no compromise is permitted.

The other side simply demands that you trust the Science and let them experiment with the food of your children. You may be okay with that, but enough people are simply not and convincing them otherwise will require a bit more than just calling them unevolved rubes, conspiracists or some other slur that ultimately still means Untermenschen.

The interests of “Big Agriculture” are just incidental to this discussion. The real debate is whether it should be permitted to introduce whatever the hell you want into the food supply of a nation, just because “scientists” say it’s okay now. At some point radioactive toothpaste was approved by scientists and those who warned against it were called cranks, luddites and all sorts of nasty names. Most of them were never compensated for the reputational damage they suffered as a result of being correct.

Maybe lab-grown meat is not like the radioactive toothpaste. But it may still be like Thalidomide. Most people today either don’t know this drug at all or only know it by the Thalidomide scandal. As it turns out, giving it out like candy over the counter for morning sickness ended up killing 10,000+ infants and maiming another several thousands for life. Only in Germany. Because in the late 1950s skepticism was still the norm. The FDA made the backwards and luddite decision of not allowing the German wonder-drug on the US market because they didn’t trust the German scientists. At the time, the decision was also “evidence-free” according to the techno-optimists of the time.

Today we know that Thalidomide is not straight-up poison, but it’s very dangerous and has some specific uses for good and is thus used only there while kept away from general use. If Thalidomide had been invented today, we would’ve likely killed hundreds of thousands of infants until there would’ve been a scandal because today, unlike the 1950s, skepticism towards Science is even rarer than it was 70 years ago.

And this is why, without conclusive data, the actual pro-science position is to be skeptical of the claims of experts and err on the side of caution.

Not all innovation is equal. Changing the type of lightbulb in the household is slightly easier to accept (since the very idea of a lightbulb isn’t exactly old) than totally upending our diets away from 100,000+ years of evolution.

Also, innovation is not value-neutral – no matter how much midwits scream otherwise. Even if the innovator intends it to be value-neutral, in the real world it won’t be. It can’t be. Because in the real world there’s people with interests and values. And lab-grown meat, at least for the time being, does not advance the values of normal people (frens) – in fact it hinders them. Lab-grown meat, for the time being, advances the interests of people who hate us (non-frens) and there’s nothing wrong with being skeptical of anything coming from the corner that hates you. Quite the opposite: It’s healthy.

By the way: This isn’t a Florida thing. Arizona is working on a similar policy. In Europe, Italy already banned this. The Romanian Senate passed a similar measure last year. Similar measures are being debated in Austria, France and Spain.

Maybe they’re all stupid or bought and paid for by Big Meat. But maybe not. Quality of food is far superiour in Europe to the good ol’ USA. So, again, heuristically speaking, it’s sensible to err on the side of caution when so many credentialed experts urge you to embrace a radical change that is quite literally unprecedented in history with a topic that is fundamental to human life.

Maybe this time the techno-optimists are right. If that’s the case, we can always change the law(s) again. But until then, it is more than reasonable to presume they’re wrong and act accordingly. Oh no… you won’t have the freedom to sell potential cancer. Yes, yes, the Scientists deboonked that. Here’s a link deboonking that crazy conspiracy theory. Oh, hold on, what does it say there?

Leading scientists agree that cultured meat products won’t give you cancer, but the industry doesn’t have the decades of data to prove it—so it’s trying to avoid the question instead.

Right. Then see you in a few decades when you got the data to prove it. Meanwhile, leave us alone, you demonic freaks!

Make or break for new tech? “Adult entertainment”

Whether you call it Rule 34, educational content or, as in past times when Broadway was more honest – The Internet is for Porn – the fact remains that sex sells and sex-related trade is a driver of most new technologies. How that makes you feel is a separate conversation for some other time.

Short history

The oldest ever video was shot in 1874 and it’s something really autistic – the passing of the planet Venus over the Sun. The second oldest is from 1888 and it’s a random scene from someone’s backyard/garden. Third oldest is Lumière’s now famous 1895 shot of workers leaving the factory. The scene is now relatively famous because more people look up on the Internet “oldest continuous/smooth video”. But at the time, that scene had an audience of 10. Not ten thousand, but 10 people.

Just a few months later, in 1896, the first two erotic movies are made – one in France and one in the United States. That is the moment when “motion pictures” became an industry. Sure, the two films from 1896 wouldn’t be considered “erotic” today – but they were in their time. It’s also unsurprising that they happened in France (then just as today one of the most sex-positive countries and home of the invention of cinema) and in the US (the place where permitless innovation was the norm and daring investments a routine practice).

Video cassette recorder on the Betamax format

If you know what Betamax is, you’re either very old (and from a rich Western background) or someone who worked with anything that could be acquired in the post-communist chaos of early 1990s (like me).

If you don’t know what Betamax is, you’re either younger than 20 or you already know what VHS cassettes are. Betamax was the other format of cassettes, produced by Sony, as opposed to VHS cassettes produced by JVC.

In fact, Betamax cassettes were slightly better (and smaller in size) and they were the first video cassettes to be produced. A huge intra-Japanese war ensued with the Japanese government trying to force all manufacturers to adopt Betamax (because it was the first).

But the war was swiftly won by VHS. Why? Logistics and porn. But especially porn. The porn producers’ decision to adopt VHS as the medium of distribution for their production ended up making VHS the standard for everyone regardless of how they wanted to use their recorders/devices. This got expanded to cameras/camcoders too – which initially had a VHS cassette and later on a mini-VHS for regular people, while professional studios maintained the bigger ones (I filmed with one of those as late as 2004).

Betamax cassettes were produced until March of 2016 (!!) and VHS cassettes are still being produced today, though not by big mainstream manufacturers.

DVDs? Same story. They became widespread when pornographers decided they’re great for distributing higher-quality video. Then came mainstream movies and music. The reason pornographers adopted the DVD so fast was simple: Finally they could offer their end-users the ability to jump to the… ahem… preferred scene and do so seamlessly and without risking ruining the medium – as it had been the case with VHS cassettes. Anyone who digitalized VHS cassettes knows what I’m talking about – the most watched scenes tend to be the hardest to recover from an old tape.

Pay-per-view TV? Yeap, that’s pornographers’ work as well. And it was the same incentive: How to deliver content to clients in the most private way possible and as on-demand as possible while also charging money. Pioneered first in hotels and then in digital networks, pay-per-view TV became mainstream in early 2000s after the pornographers had perfected the model in the 1990s. In fact, the same pornographers then became consultants in tech and sale for mainstream content distributors later on.
The best example is Danni Ashe, the first big name in Internet pornography in 1994. Her career as a pornographer was, naturally, short. But her experience made her a sought-after consultant for every single big media corporation. She’s just the most famous example, but many others have been in the same position.

E-commerce? Yeah, that’s porn too. Long before anyone knew what e-commerce is, pornographers were already doing that as early as 1993. For the next 15 years, e-commerce meant porn. And then when it was perfected, industry insiders offered consultancy (for hefty fees) to everyone else on how to do it.

Likely the smartphone would’ve never become ubiquitous without the incentive for porn. In fact, the investments into 3G and 4G were only green-lit after consulting with the porn industry. It was (correctly) assumed that without the ability to distribute porn, the adoption of “smart” phones would be sluggish or simply won’t happen at all and thus investments would never be recovered.

By the way, this moment (around 2002 when 3G started to become a thing) is when you see a sharp rise in women consuming porn. A fact of life that anti-porn crussaders of 2024 have yet to integrate in their narrative(s), in part due to the women-are-wonderful effect.

Fast increase in bandwidth? Piracy and porn. Netflix came much later, when the market had “matured”. Netflix would’ve never happened without ThePirateBay and Porn.

From glorified tape recorder to useful technology

Michio Kaku calls present-day “AI” a glorified tape recorder. And he’s not wrong. As opposed to nearly every other take on “AI” on the Internet which competes in the “who can be the most wrong” Olympics.

But in order for “AI” (really just LLMs and 50 year old technology with bigger hard drives) to really become relevant, it will have to pass some tests. And the testing ground will be porn – regardless of what you and I think about that.

Just two days ago the first “AI” beauty pageant was announced. Well, sort of. It’s not exactly the first and the whole thing is not exactly new. But propaganda marketing matters because it creates perception. And in the world of propaganda, perception is reality.

But what will make or break this not-exactly-new-but-better-marketed technology will be “AI girlfriends” – which is a nicer way of saying porn. For now, there’s quite a bit of talk about how much that would be worth. But so far it’s only limited to chatbots.

May I remind you that chatbots for lonely people is not exactly something new. ELIZA is almost 60 years old.

Also, by “AI girlfriend” I don’t necessarily mean sex-bot androids with a language processor either – though that would certainly be a huge improvement. It will be enough if someone manages to create an advanced enough bot that can simulate a videochat-like conversation. That is to say… interactive porn by prompt.

By the way, interactive angle-changing for sport events that was the big thing in mid 2000s had been a thing in porn for over a decade prior. And the first interactive sports broadcasts paid for proprietary software to porn studios.

Similarly, the one who will be able to create interactive porn by prompt will get to set the standard for its “mainstream” offshoot (think realistic news anchors, entire sections of a featured movie and so on) and make big bucks out of it too.

There have already been some attempts at this, but they’re nowhere near close to good enough. And the only way they get good enough is through porn.

That’s when “media creators” should start worry. When the first company makes the first billion in revenue (VC investment doesn’t count) from selling access to PornGPT. That’s when we will also see the first really big REEEEE about porn in the 21st century, not dissimilar to the one from 1896 at the projection of (one of the) first erotic movies in a theater.

Or, alternatively, this doesn’t happen at all (or doesn’t happen in the next 50 years) because it’s too complicated without quantum computing – in which case “AI” goes where it deserves: A cute gimmick with niche applications – such as a glorified Grammarly to be used by kids to save time on bullshit assignments by bullshit professors/teachers in the bullshit institutions we still force them to attend because our societies are ruled by crazy people with bullshit ideas.

We’ll see what happens. But porn will be make or break.

Japonia devine cel de-al patrulea partener strategic al I3M

În cadrul celui de-al nouălea summit al Inițiativei celor Trei Mări, procesul de aderare al Japoniei ca partener strategic al Inițiativei a fost finalizat.
Anunțul a fost făcut de Președintele României, Klaus Iohannis, pe platforma X (fostă Twitter).


În cadrul aceluiași eveniment au participat și președinții Finlandei și Muntenegrului, țări care nu sunt membre ale Inițiativei.

În Finlanda partidul Perussuomalaiset (populist de dreapta) susține aderarea Finlandei la Inițiativă iar după alegerile din aprilie 2023, în urma cărora la putere a ajuns o coaliție de dreapta, Finlanda a devenit mult mai interesată de acest proiect.

În Muntenegru, interesul pentru inițiative occidentale a crescut treptat după 2020, odată cu înfrângerea DPS în alegerile din 2020 și căderea în dizgrație a lui Milo Đukanović care condusese țara de la proclamarea independenței față de Serbia.

Context

Discuția privind cooptarea Japoniei ca partener strategic a început în urmă cu fix un an cu ocazia vizitei președintelui României la Tokyo unde a fost primit de Împăratul Naruhito cu ocazia depășirii centenarului de la stabilirea relațiilor diplomatice dintre cele două țări.

În cadrul discuțiilor de la cel de-al optulea summit, ținut anul trecut la București, cooptarea Japoniei în proiect a fost unul din elementele aduse de președinția românească.

Japonia s-a arătat interesată de participarea în orice formă la Inițiativa celor Trei Mări încă din anul 2021 iar cooperarea japoneză s-a intensificat după escaladarea rusească în Ucraina începută în 2022.

Președinția Inițiativei este asigurată rotativ, pentru aproximativ un an, de către țara care organizează următorul Summit. Poziția a fost deținută de România până în septembrie anul trecut. După terminarea lucrărilor Summit-ului de la Vilnius, președinția rotativă va fi preluată de Ungaria până la organizarea Summit-ului de la Budapesta în 2025.

Inițiativa celor Trei Mări este o platformă la nivel prezidențial ce reunește Austria, Bulgaria, Croația, Cehia, Estonia, Ungaria, Letonia, Lituania, Polonia, România, Slovacia, Slovenia și Grecia, cea din urmă aderând în 2023 la Summit-ul de la București. Ucraina și Moldova participă în calitate de parteneri.

The coming hostile takeover of the western Left

In the years following their disastrous defeat in 2015, the Social-Democratic party of Denmark underwent a hostile takeover. Mette Frederiksen’s faction seized power over the party, and with it created a fundamental shift in the ideological doctrine of the party.

Gone was the obsession with feminism under Helle Thorning-Schmidt, gone was the belief in mass immigration and Inclusivity Uber Alles, replaced instead with idyllic pictures of the Danish Cloth – a white cross in a crimson field, starkly contrasted to the blue skies of midsummer promising a return to “the Denmark you know”.

Vote for the Denmark you know

Sure the red still symbolized socialism, but the white crosses did signal resistance to the ever present, looming shadow of Islam. At the time a great many Leftists wondered how this had come to pass, that the party of Thorvald Stauning would turn its back on the progress that they’d carried the banner of for so long.

Outside of Denmark, as the decay of progressivism becomes ever more apparent, a great many more Leftists will be at least as surprised, if not outright shocked, when this event replicates itself across the Left-wing parties of the Western world. The reasons for this are multifaceted, but have their origin in how the progressive narrative is falling apart at the seems as we speak.

Part One – Narrative Folding

All narratives – no matter their quality or lack thereof, undergo some sort of decay. With every new generation the status quo created by the narrative conclusions of the previous one becomes the foundation for the next. In a way, they fold in on themselves.

This can be seen in the Nordic countries with the socialistic welfare state giving way to a state enabled solipsism, most prevalent in their elder care systems.

It became so easy to simply throw your grandparents to the institutions that it has become an absolute norm to send them to a state run elder home at first given opportunity. It’s not the family’s responsibility but the state’s. And you’re weird for doing otherwise.

We also see this in much of modernity in the Christian thinking world. We began from the premise that man is violent, that force is the solution to all problems, to Christ’s teachings that we must show restraint. As restraint became the new baseline, this gave way to the notion that not only is it important to show restraint, one must be incapable of violence whatsoever; i.e. Pacifism.

Much of the West’s issues, in particular with immigration are a result of ideological pacifism on a societal level against the less obvious violence of the state and the very obvious violence of Islamist’s and Left-wing extremists

A similar effect was seen in the islamisation of the once Christian Levant. It’s mostly known as a textbook example of the power of intransigent minorities, as per Nassim Taleb:

…the spread of Islam in the Near East where Christianity was heavily entrenched (it was born there) can be attributed to two simple asymmetries. The original Islamic rulers weren’t particularly interested in converting Christians as these provided them with tax revenues –the proselytism of Islam did not address those called “people of the book”, i.e. individuals of Abrahamic faith. In fact, my ancestors who survived thirteen centuries under Muslim rule saw advantages in not being Muslim: mostly in the avoidance of military conscription.

The two asymmetric rules were are as follows. First, if a non Muslim man under the rule of Islam marries a Muslim woman, he needs to convert to Islam –and if either parents of a child happens to be Muslim, the child will be Muslim. Second, becoming Muslim is irreversible, as apostasy is the heaviest crime under the religion, sanctioned by the death penalty. The famous Egyptian actor Omar Sharif, born Mikhael Demetri Shalhoub, was of Lebanese Christian origins. He converted to Islam to marry a famous Egyptian actress and had to change his name to an Arabic one. He later divorced, but did not revert to the faith of his ancestors.

Under these two asymmetric rules, one can do simple simulations and see how a small Islamic group occupying Christian (Coptic) Egypt can lead, over the centuries, to the Copts becoming a tiny minority. All one needs is a small rate of interfaith marriages.

Taleb’s analysis is mostly focused on the stubbornness aspect of the process, but does also hint at a rather important part: not why the parents pretended to convert but why their grandchildren became genuine Muslims (and radical ones at that).

As the original event that birthed the new status quo, that being the conversion to Islam, occurred, the fake converts may still have been Christian but they had to behave Muslim in public.

Their children then found this behavior natural and therefore effortlessly acted Muslim in public, but were still close enough to the experiences of their parents that the original narrative of simply pretending to convert would hold. This may even have been true of the grandchildren in some circumstances, but eventually – and inevitably, the internal and initial narrative faded, as it had no external reality left to be attached to anymore. As a result, the descendants eventually grew up behaving Muslim, being treated Muslim and thought themselves Muslim.

The original reasons for the status quo had faded and what remained where the consequences that where seen, felt and acted upon. And any narrative anchored in perceived reality will supplant one exempt from external affirmation. Eventually.

Current year Leftism will begin to undergo this at an accelerated pace, simply because it cannot sustain itself anymore, as too many facets of their ideology have become self destructive.

The most obvious example of this self destructive tendency is the transgenderist narrative.

It is already loosing ground, we are already seeing puberty blockers being banned for minors in the UK of all places, with the rest of the narrative to follow suit over the next five to ten years With it, the rest of the trans narrative is bound to follow suit, due to the internal inconsistencies and radicalism of the ideology.

As biology cycles out the older generations, the younger ones who grew up witnessing the consequences of seeing friends and family members suffer under the consequences of being trans’d, some of which might even have experienced it themselves, they will develop a narrative of great resentment to the consequences of the previous one.

The riots and damage in the wake of BLM and following attempts at normalizing crime in American blue-states will eventually force a resolution. With or without the Left. The younger generations are already being confronted with this havoc, and propaganda can only do so much to make them ignore reality, when it hits them in the face.

The rest of the sexual deviancy of the Left – from shoehorning in homosexuality everywhere, to the attempts at normalizing pedophilia, are not only deeply unpopular with any sane person (for good reason), they’re also unpopular with the migrants the Left themselves have imported. Most immigrants from the third world – whether Mexican or Muslim, are devoutly religious and deeply opposed to such… excesses, and keeping them as a base would require the Left to begin discarding their progressive ideals.

This is not helped by their view of Israel and World War 2. WW2 is sufficiently far in the past that can no longer cause much emotional reaction when invoked.

Combine this coming emotional irrelevance with the younger Left’s hatred of Israel – and that many of the Muslim voters they pay lip service to, loathe the Jewish State as well, and it doesn’t take a genius to see what direction they’re going in.

In addition, most of the narrative power regarding the horrors of the Nazi regime is depleted. The aspect that they they were a product of nationalism, patriotism and militarism (the positive view of a strong military) are slowly decaying, partially due to this lack of emotional interest, partially accelerated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The racism aspect meanwhile is similarly unraveling as the the narrative about the Holocaust has begun to fold in on itself. Since the younger generations are growing up – not with the premise that the Holocaust was a horrid thing they saw with their own eyes (like the Greatest Generation) or with the post-Nazi sentiment that the horrors of WW2 must never be repeated and society must be organized around preventing a repeat at all costs (like the Boomers and Millennials), but with a post-post-Nazi paradigm, that any invocation of the Holocaust or Nazis or racism is used exclusively as a tool. As a tactic used in order to unfairly shut down any conversation critical of the awful policies of the current status quo. And this has reached its zenith in the last ten or so years and is well known by anyone intellectually honest.

Whether or not this results in an anti-Semitic resurgence depends on the amount and effectiveness of the censorship in the next 20 years, as the only reason the alt-right ever had anything resembling relevance was the fact that no other group than the Neo-Nazis where willing to interact with those critical of the current narrative surrounding WW2.

In some ways, we can already see that the Left is abandoning this tactic in favor of other forms of thought-terminating cliches.

A recent Atlantic article covered the rise of “chaos agents” – people willing to spread propaganda regardless of its angle solely because it would cause more conflict within the society. What this really is, is a smoking gun, that the old Nazi accusation tactic does not work anymore and that they’re now trying to replace it with new ones, in order to maintain at least some of the power that the Nazi accusations had. This specific tool will likely not work on the level of the commoner, but it will spread through the universities and intelligentsia as a tool for keeping intellectual discussion in line.

When you take all of this into account – the collapse of the trans narrative, the conservative leanings of the Left’s migrant base, the need for law and order in the wake of immigration and BLM and the increasingly radical anti-Semitism within the younger Left, it becomes obvious that the Left is going to fracture along the lines of progressive versus non-progressive

But while this faction may in ways resemble conservatives on social issues (and here I make the exception of anti-Semitism as it simply does not exist on a large scale on the right) in theory, in practice they will differ quite severely. Why?

Because at the end of the day, the modus operandi of the Left has for decades, if not centuries, been securization.

Part Two – Securization

Securization is the political science term for the study of how narratives are (re)framed to justify the centralization of power under the pretense of security (what they call a “securitized narrative”), and it has been a blatantly obvious tool of the maximal state for decades if not centuries by now.

The most obvious example of this in practice in recent memory was the pandemic project. That society must be locked down and controlled for the security and protection of our (elder’s) lives.

Worth mentioning is that the main architect of modern securization theory – Ole Wæver, was canceled during the pandemic project due to flimsy attempts at framing his work as “racist”.

People who grew up in the 2000s got to see this in the shape of cases like the Patriot act – attempts at expanding the surveillance state under the pretense of security from terrorism.

As the Left grew more dominant we’ve started to see their attempts at securization more often:

  • Censorship is justified under the pretense of security, from “nazis”.
  • Mass immigration is justified under the pretense of security, of the immigrants’ human rights.
  • The deterioration of law and order in democrat cities is justified under the pretense of security, from police brutality
  • Transing of children is justified under the pretense of security from their biology, as the therapy wont work as well if they wait, so they have to get them while young, you see.

While securization has been a tool of the establishment Right as well, it has typically been less obviously intrusive and directly harmful, as the right still has libertarian factions within it to counterbalance it. Even now that the Right began to talk about a potential Tiktok ban the suggested policy – being totalitarian as ever – has not been embraced fully by the Right, with Trump himself weighing in against it. It’s debatable whether a ban of Tiktok would be to the benefit of Facebook but, at the end of the day, his concerns do result in a limiting of governmental overreach.

On the Left meanwhile, there are no libertarian reflexes and little pragmatism inhibiting their totalitarian urges.

The thing is that most of the attempts at solving the problems caused by the insanity of the current Left can easily become securitized narratives themselves.

Now that the censorship has created extremists, their existence can be used to either justify even more censorship – or the extremists themselves can begin to argue in favor of their own forms of totalitarianism.

The violence caused by immigration and BLM can be used as justification for a massive police and surveillance state. This already happened under Mette Frederiksen where not only they argued for a massive surveillance state like totalitarian hellholes like China or Britain, but the justification for doing so was as a means of safety from the “consequences of a mistaken immigration and integration policy”. On a side note, during parliamentary debates the minister of Justice argued that since it is impossible to have any sort of freedom without safety, and a massive surveillance state would increase safety, therefore increased surveillance is an increase of freedom. This is one more reason a social-conservative Left-wing both can and will come into existence.

At this point in time, where progressivism is close to being exhausted, social-conservatism simply seems to be the easiest path to grabbing and centralizing power under the maximal state. It would also allow the Left access to the “churchcommie” elements among the politically activated.

Churchcommie is a slang term for a certain type of authoritarian social-conservative that wishes to implement a maximal state in order to stomp out whatever they view as degeneracy in society. If you told one of these people about Ceaușescu’s views on abortion (complete ban alongside contraceptives), without telling them what politician suggested it, they’d probably want to vote for him.

We have already seen such reflexes be used to securitize pornography: bans on various porn sites which we have so far first seen attempted in Britain. While the system inevitably failed due to being unenforceable, the underlying puritanical values that gave birth to this bill are real and a threat to civil liberties. And thus, easily subverted by the future Left.

Part Three – The next Left

The Left will not abandon progressivism overnight. What will happen is the fracture within the Left between progressive and non-progressive will widen ever more as the Left begins to loose power in elections. Eventually, after one too many defeats at the hand of the right, such a non-progressive faction will attempt a hostile takeover – as it happened in Denmark.

The replacement of progressive ideas with social conservative ones has happened many times before in the history of Leftism.
After Lenin’s extremely degenerate views (even by Russian standards), Stalin went in the exact opposite direction and imposed extremely harsh conservative policies (also even by Russian standards) on the Russian people(s).

Similarly Ceaușescu emerged after a much more feminist (yes, really) Soviet puppet regime in Communist occupied Romania.

After Mao’s Great Leap Forward, China slowly began to implement what can be viewed as a form of capitalism – though a very crony and highly state controlled one, as they found out that collective farms simply didn’t work.

While I doubt the Western Left’s social conservative switch will be as brutal, as they still have to win votes at the end of the day, it’ll no doubt still be terrible for the society as it will be used as a means of centralizing power – and lining the Left’s pockets in the process.
But it simply seems to be the only good means of achieving securization in the post-progressive paradigm. And also allows them to tap into the disgruntled totalitarian forces among the politically activated right.

As simple pragmatism forces the lines to blur between Left and Right it’ll become a lot harder for the right to make their case, since their current Trumpist narrative is build around them being against an obviously evil foe. You can’t do that if the foe uses your exact arguments with a different coat of paint and slightly different motives.

(On a side note, it shocked me how easy it would have been to frame this analysis as an elaborate plan by the Left: that they intend to sell a cure for a disease that they created. Though this might literally happen in some parts of California where the bubonic plague is reemerging. That said, this runs on the assumption that the Left actually knows what they’re doing. And they don’t.)

The form that this new Left would take would therefore be much more akin to the Danish Social-Democrats, not just because it is the closest they have to a template that actually makes sense and could work, but also because it is coming from a Scandinavian country.

Most of the bad ideas that are currently haunting the West may have their origin in the USA, but the R&D for them is done in Scandinavia before being shipped back for final testing and publication.

Some of the examples of this include transgenderism, the first “modern” gender reassignment surgery was performed in Denmark after all (look up Christine Jorgensen, if you must). Modern Feminism which was first implemented in true form in Sweden and the recent Atlantic article regarding “chaos agents” is based on the research of a Danish sociologist who worked with the government during the pandemic.

Even the concept of securization theory was heavily influenced by the work of Ole Wæver – also a Dane. Not to mention the notion of the welfare state itself.
“Getting to Denmark” is a common trope in political science, that a welfare “utopia” like Denmark is the desirable end goal of any society.

The Left’s fetishization of Scandinavia and it’s bad ideas is not going to end any time soon and, no doubt, looking to the now much more socially conservative, but still economically Left-wing politics of the region, is a good indicator of where the Left will go next once progressivism has been drained of all it could offer.

Part Four – Conclusions

For the Right this paradigm shift will be a poison chalice; it will only mean a renormalization of conservative values in the short term, as long as such values can be exploited to seize more power for the state. Long term, if not properly managed, this will result in the generation that will follow becoming one extremely hostile to conservative values. And, when a brain drain eventually begins to take hold on the Right, they will be stuck and incapable of inventing new ideas to work around this stigma.

It has been said that Conservatism is not so much about conserving what matters, but ensuring that the innate vices of human nature are managed in such a way their damage is minimized and hopefully turned to benefits.
Perhaps it is time that the conservatives begin managing the vices of Social-Conservatism.

The youth have very good reasons to be angry

Well, Hell has just frozen over. The New York Times, a former newspaper, just published an article that barely scratches the surface of the crimes committed against our youth during the Pandemic Project.

The piece focuses on school closures and it leaves much to be desired, as it omits some details (such as the role of teachers’ unions and the systemic disinformation and censorship practiced by “public health”), but, even so, this is the first time when the leftist half (globally, not just in the US) is exposed more thoroughly to what we, in Team Reality, have known and explained since roughly 4 years ago.

And nowhere it is more evident that the leftist half is scared than in the comment section (which I urge you to read in its entirety so you familiarize yourself with the unreason and anti-thinking that permeates the mainstream Left).

Out of touch teacher

The comment section is choke full of limousine liberals and severely out of touch overly-paid bureaucrats – because that’s exactly what public school teachers are.

In every country – from the US, to Brazil, to Germany, to Romania and all the way to Kazakhstan – there’s the discussion that teachers are underpaid. I insist that the opposite is true. Public school teachers are way overpaid compared to the value that they deliver. And, in fact, given what the teachers’ unions did to our youth during the Pandemic Project, lowering their salaries by 50% and then freezing them at that level by decree for the next 20 years would be a good start before we start the discussion about what punishment teachers deserve for the crimes they committed.

But, since that is highly unlikely to happen (except Argentina where it is happening, mashallah!) the next best thing is preferable: The obliteration of public schools. By decree where it’s possible or by death by a thousand cuts where it isn’t possible (school choice initiatives, vouchers, homeschooling, unschooling – all are valuable tools that must be supported to the explicit detriment of public schools).

One self-aware NPC

But one comment in particular drew my attention: This one where the Pandemic Project mythology of “kids are resilient” is regurgitated, followed by a hope that the youth won’t judge them too harshly. My reaction to this is genuine laughter. Because you have to be a leftist to think that a traumatizing experience of senseless and brutal authoritarianism during the formative years will not have consequences over how those kids will eventually end up seeing those older than them.

You see, it’s not just school closures. If anything, in a lot of places, the school closures were indeed a blessing in disguise. But it’s the totality of the Pandemic Project. The mental health and the cognitive future of our youth has been intentionally harmed so that 85 year olds can live for another month or two. THAT, is fundamentally uncivilized. And always ends up badly.

The adults poured sand in skate parks to prevent kids from exercising, jailed or financially ruined young people for the crime of watching the sunset, arrested their parents for the crime of playing catch with them on an open field, when it couldn’t stop them from traveling, the adults intentionally tried to make their traveling worse – such as by banning pillows (yes, really).

And that’s just before I delve into the dystopian shithole that Australia was – a collective madness that made even the Taliban look reasonable by comparison. Australia is the only country except North Korea that refused to let its citizens leave the country. It is also the only country except North Korea in which no pandemic lawsuit was successful in court. Even in communist China some measures were struck down by the courts.

And no, it’s not a metaphor with the Taliban being reasonable. The Taliban gave asylum to an unmarried pregnant New Zealander (straight up haram in their “culture”) when her own country refused to let her come home. New Zealand is the country that arrested people for doing contraband with KFC, in case you have forgotten. And, after driving their youth crazy (in a very medical, psychiatric sense), NZ locked them up for days in a treatment that was considered inhuman even in Ceaușescu’s time.

Of course, I could go on like this for another 100,000 words and I’d still barely scratch the surface. And maybe one day I should. But in the meantime, what I’m trying to point out is that the Pandemic Project had a disproportionately negative impact on the youth. Especially those unfortunate enough to be between ages 7 and 18 during the Pandemic Project.

Given the crimes committed intentionally by adults against them, I can’t blame any young person for having zero respect for “our institutions” (whatever the fuck that means these days) or, really, for adults in general. There is no reason anyone younger than 20 to have ANY respect for any institution or for 2/3 of the adults. At least two thirds of adults enthusiastically or passively supported sacrificing the 12 year olds’ future so that 85 year olds live one or two months extra. There is no rational reason to ever forgive that.

Sure, we can ignore the problem for a while but, if we couple it with the already existent disdain for the elderly, described really well here by our Danish collaborator, the recipe for disaster is already baked in and cooking. Ignore it at your own peril. I have a clear conscience regarding the Pandemic Project. I not only said the right things, but walked the talk too. I’m still doing trips to the courthouse because of that. I regret nothing.

What to do?

A lot more needs to be written about the Evils committed against our youth during the Pandemic Project. And hopefully more will be. But an equally important topic is “and then what?”

Acknowledging the crimes is an important step. One which will be fought every step of the way by the adults at fault – because that’s how human psychology works: Nobody wants to admit he was part of Evil.

Meanwhile, all sorts of nefarious interests will, for sure, try to take advantage of the situation to further radicalize the youth in their preferred direction. In fact, this is already happening. I remember in 2020 when I was told by a “conservative” that I’m heartless because I was already working on the necessary deradicalization tools in post-pandemic and, yes, with an unapologetic bent towards my preferred policy outcomes.

But at least I’m honest about it. I make no secret that I want the youth to value freedom, much lower taxes and accountability and I want the youth to virulently despise “public health” in its totality, nearly all government bureaucrats and to presume that the experts are intentionally lying to them as a matter of routine and demand extraordinary evidence for absolutely everything an expert claims.

Other interests are less transparent about this. China for instance feeds our youth transgenderist propaganda through TikTok while it feeds its youth wholesome educational videos on DIY, relationships, healthy ways to have fun and so on. Russia uses the very real resentment over the Pandemic Project to demoralize the non-russian youth. And the response from our elites is essentially retarded.

You wonder why so many youngsters fall for russian disinformation? Well, check the mirror first. You might be at fault for it. When you call(ed) opposition to mask mandates “russian propaganda” – guess what? You just legitimized russian propaganda. This is also the work of the “wise” and oh-so-enlightened adults whom the youth, once again, is absolutely correct to disrespect.

I don’t purport to have all the answers, or even most of them. But here’s what I know: If we don’t make amends, and fast, things will get far worse.

Because while the youth have very good reasons to be angry at the world, the responses they come up with aren’t equally good.

If you are part of the 1/3 of adults who did not support the committing of Evil against the youth so that 85 year olds live a bit more, you have a duty to help with making amends.

In civilization, the old sacrifice for the youth, not the other way around.

The pushers of the Pandemic Project in the west loved to quote Japan as an example to follow. Well,… in Japan there was no mask or vaccine mandate, no lockdowns and, by the way, in Japan it is indeed customary for the old to take one for the team. Old and skilled people marched to almost certain death in 2011 to clean up the area after the Fukushima disaster – explicitly citing that it would be immoral for any more young people to be put at risk.

You are not asked to risk radiation poisoning for the youth. You are asked to do your duty to the next generation. Mentor a young person (preferably a man) in your profession. If a choice is between a young guy hurt by the Pandemic Project over a Covid Karen – always fire or purposefully disadvantage the Covid Karen in favor of the young guy. It is only moral to punish the guilty in all possible ways.

Other things you should do:

  • Talk to them. Seriously! You have no idea how lonely our youth have become. Sure, some countries are far worse than others – but the problem has gotten far worse everywhere (except Sweden) in the last 4 years.
  • Listen to them. Listen to their anger. And then judge it. Non-judgmentalism ideology has also weakened our youth. Judging it gently is what allows for growth and preparation for the real world.
  • Promote or invest in normal activities, preferably outdoors. I’m actively looking for an opportunity myself. We must bring back summer camps where they were allowed to fade away or have been shutdown by adults.
  • Speak up when the opportunity presents itself. I’m due for a meeting this week with an alderman over a youth project. He saw my virulent rationales and agrees that he and his equally old boomers have been too out of touch. Maybe nothing will come out of it. But you won’t know until you try.

This is the bare minimum you owe. First to your child(ren) and then to other youth.

Or… you can do nothing. That’s also fine. But don’t complain 10 years from now, please.

Two years ago a German teenager killed an old lady in Mediaș. He was sentenced to 14 years imprisonment a few months ago but there’s still strong resistance to discussing the motive. And that’s because the killer had been radicalized online (the real kind, not the bullshit sold by the corporate media) – a phenomenon that surged starting with 2020.

Don’t worry – you will see a lot more of these in the coming years. Coupled with random “unexplainable” suicides too. And, in larger countries, new serial killers as well. Because that’s the consequence of mass Evil committed against the youth.

But hey, what do I know? 🤷🏻‍♂️ I’m just a guy on a sofa that got roughly 90% of the predictions right on the Pandemic Project. I’m not an expert. Which is a good thing.

That’s it for now.

There will be regulations on smartphones. But how?

The Florida House just passed a bill with bipartisan support that purports to ban social media use for teenagers under the age of 16. A bit over a month ago the Swedish government called for a review of school policies with a view to make school grounds mobile-free, and further changes in policy to “emphasize the real world” are in the bag as well during the coalition talks. In Spain, three regions have already banned all mobile phone usage in schools and there is increasing push to make the ban nationwide and even tighter. Just yesterday, the State School Council in Spain published its first proposal draft in public consultation.

France has banned mobile phones in schools 5 years ago and a week ago president Emmanuel Macron announced a strategic guidance to his government to come up with a policy to “take back control” of youth screen use.

Now, sure, all of the above-cited policies have various issues – from legality, enforcement or morality. But one thing is certain: The notion of regulating smartphones is no longer a fantasy – but a growing trend. So the debate is no longer whether smartphone use should be regulated, but rather how should this be done in such a way that doesn’t violate fundamental rights but at the same time addresses the issues that arose from excessive smartphone usage.

The issues

Jonathan Haidt, who is hardly a right-wing reactionary bigot, wrote in 2021 about the smartphone trap.

In a paper we just published in The Journal of Adolescence, we report that in 36 out of 37 countries, loneliness at school has increased since 2012. We grouped the 37 countries into four geographic and cultural regions, and we found the same pattern in all regions: Teenage loneliness was relatively stable between 2000 and 2012, with fewer than 18 percent reporting high levels of loneliness. But in the six years after 2012, rates increased dramatically. They roughly doubled in Europe, Latin America and the English-speaking countries, and rose by about 50 percent in the East Asian countries.

From 2012 onwards, and especially after 2015 (when smartphones became very cheap), mental health issues skyrocketed among teenagers in ways not seen in two or even three decades prior to the advent of smartphones.

The biggest issue is attention span. Nobody today denies that attention span in social media addicted societies has visibly decreased. Between 2000 and 2015, the median attention spans of Americans shrank by a whopping 25%. In 2000, the median attention span was 12 seconds. Fifteen years later, it’s shrunk significantly to 8.25 seconds. That’s less than goldfish, whose attention span runs for 9 full seconds.

Then there’s the bullying issue. I personally have very little sympathy in that department but, nevertheless, since this is a political issue, the rules of politics and propaganda apply, rather than reason. And in propaganda, perception is reality. Cyberbullying may or may not be a big issue but, if enough people believe it is, then it is an issue.

And then there are the sex-based effects. Both boys and girls are affected by social media use – it’s just that they’re affected differently and at different moments in their development. Puberty is a very hard period for nearly all teens. Social media use makes that far worse.

Instagram had particularly strong effects on girls and young women, inviting them to “compare and despair” as they scrolled through posts from friends and strangers showing faces, bodies and lives that had been edited and re-edited until many were closer to perfection than to reality.

On boys, the effects on self esteem are similar to those felt by girls for similar reasons: the building of an unrealistic image of others. What’s different is the age. Boys are negatively affected by social media after the age of 14, while girls are affected from the ages of 11-12. One main difference is that boys overcome it harder, later and slower than girls. To make things worse, not only the issue is rarely being studied (money from Samsung and Apple make sure this stays under-studied), but when it is studied, the specific impact on boys is ignored due to generalized gynocentrism in the Academia. But that’s a story for another day.

Then there’s the issue of social media being a black box. X/Twitter published its recommendation algorithm. A step in the right direction but far from good enough.

We still have no idea what (and why) is recommended by Meta products and by TikTok. Experiments show that using a Chinese IP address will yield a very different type of recommendations than using an American address. There is increased awareness that TikTok is essentially the CCP’s spyware program.

But all of this ignores the obvious issue: Smartphones themselves. It would be easier to manage all of these without or with less smartphone usage.

”Oh, but I can’t” is the language of addicts. Which is also coopted by vested interests and, of course, naive people with limited imagination.

What vested interests? The smartphone global market was over half a trillion dollars in 2021 and poised to grow to almost one trillion dollars ($947 billion) by 2030. That’s a lot of money. The mobile app market was another $230 billion in 2023. And that’s before including video games for smartphones which is another $140 billion. That’s a lot of money. The GDP of Switzerland is slightly smaller than the current market worth of the smartphone and smartphone-dependent industries. The GDP of oil-rich Norway plus Sweden combined will soon be (if they aren’t already) smaller than the vested interests in smartphones.

So the opposition will be fierce and very well funded. Not to mention the limitless armies of social media zombies who will gladly be the useful idiots of Big Tech like all good junkies. And this is why I think the regulation has to be better thought-out.

Schools are a no-brainer

Long lauded as the most progressive country in the world because of its embrace of digitalization, Sweden is also the first to openly say that it’s been a disaster. Swedish kids can’t write anymore. So the Education Ministry is slowly phasing out tablets and all other digital assets from the classroom. Who knew? Those backward peasants of the past had a point. Education works best on paper, they say. The Karolinska Institute goes even further and asserts what we’ve been telling you on the Sofa for years: Digital tools impair rather than enhance student learning.

Seven years ago the Dutch have noticed that about a third of primary school kids had severe difficulties in learning to write. Some have placed this on the fact that there are more and more kids in Dutch schools with a migrant background. But the figure is much higher than the proportion of kids with a migrant background. It’s not just immigrants. It’s quite a lot of kids who are, for all intends and purposes, illiterate.

As it turns out, knowing how to use TikTok isn’t really digital skills even though that’s exactly what the progressive boomers who introduced digital tools in schools sincerely believed. And, as usual for boomers, they were wrong.

In practicality, the easiest way to get a majority to support a restrictive policy is to phrase it like this: No devices that can connect to the Internet are permissible on school grounds. Yes to dumbphones, no to smartphones.

It’s imperfect, but it’s a step ahead. And, in fact, it’s merely a return to the status quo of 2010 – when a majority of students had a dumbphone.

Smartphone-free spaces

There is increased demand for them anyway, as more and more are starting to realize the danger and the trade-offs, but there is still not enough courage to start promoting it openly.

Just like there are places that have a dress code, there can and should be places that don’t allow smartphone usage at all. Preferably with a jammer installed too.

There is such thing as a “digital Sabbath” which, quite frankly, should be encouraged but, in my estimation, it’s a low-return practice.

Much more interesting is the sudden and spectacular rise in nearly every country of the so-called “unplugged summer camps” for children and adults. Some are organized by NGOs, but a lot of them are organized by for-profit corporations. Nothing wrong with that, mind you. But they sure need more promotion.

And this is where the State can have a say: If a road trip with schoolchildren is organized using school resources even partially, then it is only approved if it’s a smartphone-free environment. This isn’t hard to implement and would run into very little opposition. Basically, treat smartphones like alcohol. There is a drinking age that usually is lower than 18 – but school premises have to be 100% dry. Well, same logic can and should apply to smartphones too: while smartphones aren’t (yet) forbidden to minors, that doesn’t mean they can be or should be used anywhere.

Regulation at the point of sale

Most countries don’t allow the sale of alcohol or antipsychotics to minors. Or they do, but only in special cases and with various controls. Why exactly shouldn’t smartphones be treated the same?

At the end of the day, and the evidence is increasingly clear on that, smartphones are a tool of mass psychosis. Its side effects on minors through extended use are very similar to the use of various psychotropics. As such, there is an argument to be made that they should be treated similarly.

While the argument is very difficult to make when it comes to adults (and I’m not even sure it’s worth trying), it is in fact very easy to make and implement when it comes to minors.

You have to prove you’re 18 to buy a gun, buy a bottle of vodka, a pack of cigarettes (even 21 in some places) or to check into a hotel. But for some reason we’re supposed to believe this can’t be done with smartphones? Gimme a break!

Yes, such a regulation is imperfect (like all regulations) and there are workarounds, granted. However, it sets a different tone of conversations in the family. It sends the message that the expectation is children don’t use smartphones at all.

Currently, too many parents aware of the negative effects are put in the situation of actively fighting to opt out of the de facto mandatory smartphone for their children. Such a regulation would move the focus once again where it’s natural: You have to purposefully choose to opt-in and physically show up with your kid to get him one.

Just like a gun purchased online isn’t directly shipped to you, the same can be done for smartphones. An adult has to show up in person to pick it up. This isn’t hard. And whoever tells you otherwise is either an addict himself or acting on behalf of the aforementioned vested interests.

Right to log off

Belgium, France and Kenya so far have already enacted legislation (France did so 8 years ago!) that explicitly states the right of employees to go fully offline outside of their work.

There’s a EU Parliament resolution on that too from 2021, though it will probably go nowhere for reasons that are worth discussing some other day. Still, the idea behind it is sound, albeit poorly articulated in some places.

The fact is that so many people feel pressured to always be online. Whether the pressure is real or not is another discussion. In many cases it is real. And few people are like yours truly to have rudeness necessary to answer with “go fuck yourself, I ain’t your personal ChatGPT” to angry e-mails or messages complaining that it’s been over 24 hours since they wrote to me and I haven’t replied. Most people want to be nice. And they strive to be nice until they drive themselves crazy. And when they snap, everyone pretends to be shocked and insists they have no idea how this could’ve happened.

Such legislation should not apply just in work relations, but more generally. Just like the anti-censorship legislation in many jurisdictions which punishes attempts to censor someone else in public, the right to log off could be framed similarly: with punishments for those who pressure others into usage of digital tools.

You may think that what I just wrote is fantasy, but it’s already happening. Sweden and Ireland are getting ready to punish stores that refuse cash. “Digital exclusion” is increasingly discussed in the circles of power as a crime in and of itself.

Now, of course, this will be a difficult argument to make because the tech grifts are going to fight this tooth and nail (like they did in France). Why? Because “digital transformation” is in itself an $800+ billion grift. A lot of that money already goes on propaganda to convince people and businesses to surrender their privacy and mental health to tech grifters who promise to make our lives more convenient.

Of course, the fact that they absolutely don’t make our lives better is immaterial. With enough propaganda you can convince tens of millions of people to act against their best interests. Take self-check-out for instance. It’s an abject failure. Who pays for that failure? YOU, my dear reader. Where do you think those stores will recoup their investment from?

The tech grifters got their money and moved on to the next “digital transformation” grift.

This is the extent to which “the right to log off” should ideally go: Codify into law the assumption that digitalization is bad and move the onus on the proponent to prove otherwise. Again, this will be hard to achieve because those hundreds of billions spent on propaganda will be used to fight tooth and nail any measure that protects regular people against the predatory practices of Big Tech.

Miscellaneous policy changes

Just like uber-digitalized Sweden was able to roll back the “progress” (and continues to do so), it stands to reason that this is possible elsewhere as well. Special interests be damned.

There are many ridiculous policies in so many countries that de facto force people to have a smartphone. Under the umbrella of “combating digital exclusion” – a lot of those policies can be abolished or amended.

I’m still upset I didn’t get to test this in court during the pandemic project when the Romanian government was stupid enough to try to impose the so-called “passenger location form” which could’ve only be filled in electronically. You see, because Ceaușescu didn’t let us travel, traveling now is an unalienable right in our Constitution. I would’ve loved to take the case to the Constitutional Court. Unfortunately, someone else was smart enough to advise the government to abolish that ASAP. And so they did before I needed to travel abroad and get the chance to violate that policy and then challenge it in court.

But oftentimes it doesn’t require complicated challenges in court. Oftentimes it requires very basic discussions. Like, for instance, when cities remove the option to pay for public transport in cash. At any hint of pushback, the vast majority of such measures are thrown away. I have a long list of cities where this happened.

What’s important when lobbying against such policies or for various normal-friendly amendments is to avoid coming off entirely against technology. Not only is that politically dangerous, but you also lose allies. A good chunk of smartphone addicts are victims as well and they’re not in favor of digital exclusion necessarily.

A change of attitude and lead by example

The most meaningful and impactful change, however, will be brought by regular people and private businesses with enough cojones.

Every year I, personally, convince two people to either ditch their smartphones entirely or to reduce their usage to less than a tenth of their previous habits. How do I do that? By simply existing.

This is me, more or less unironically

You see, given that I made (and still make, to a certain extent) my living in data centers and other tech-related activities, I’m fully aware of the limitations of technology. And especially about how brutally unsafe your data really is. Once you explain that to people, free of the self-interested shilling that nearly all techbros practice (oftentimes without even realizing it), a lot of people start thinking. It becomes even easier if you’re able to explain that in proper language rather than using wooden language rife with jargon that no reasonable human being will ever learn.

But this is hard. Most of those who oppose the over-extension of technology into our lives do so under an impulse. They sense that something’s really wrong, but have little idea on how to describe it, let alone to explain it or propose meaningful change. This aspect is mercilessly exploited by both Big Tech and tech grifters, aided by the hordes of zombie addicts who feel personally attacked when you start discussing their habits in the proper negative light.

Nearly all of those who peddle techno-optimistic baloney online and offline do so not out of a sincere belief in technology, but out of personal financial interest. And they will fight tooth and nail to defend their grift. First and foremost to prevent YOU from understanding that what they’re doing is not progress, but a grift.

Nevertheless, we must persist. We will not change the world over night, but the world does change one person at a time.

Last week a father contacted me to thank me for mocking his concerns about what would happen if he continues to “fail” to buy his 4th grade(!!!) daughter a smartphone a few years ago. She’s now 16, still doesn’t have one and, as a result, blows her peers out of the water because she possesses the valuable skill of being able to talk to people (something which her generation seriously lacks) and the valuable skill of being able to focus a bit more than 10 seconds on something.

She took an apprenticeship at a carpenter’s store last summer and this summer wants to go to an outdoor camp organized by some church where they’ll learn to cook, set up a tent and things of that nature. She is, in my book, a normal teenager who is experimenting. Unfortunately, by the standards of her generation, she is abnormal and exceptional. Her peers are getting ready for the college scam and later on join the ranks of overly entitled know-nothings. Hopefully she’ll be able to withstand the peer pressure because her path is objectively better.

Instead of conclusions

Unfortunately, we were all too dumb or too lethargic to have this discussion when it would’ve made a bigger difference: say in 2005. Before 2005, smartphones were marketed nearly exclusively to the enterprise market one which, arguably, needs it more. The discussion on whether to allow extending this to the civilian market, and especially to children, would’ve been better suited in 2005. But we didn’t. Because reasons. No point dwelling on the past now.

But this leaves us in a reactive situation. This mess will have to be cleaned up. And the way to do that is under debate.

There is no single answer. There is no single policy, or even package of policies that can be adopted and everything will be fixed. This will be a long and messy process. And, for now, with a lot of trial and error until the discussion reaches pleb level. And it will take a while because bypassing Big Tech’s wall of censorship isn’t cheap or easy. It’s doable, but don’t expect huge leaps so early on in the game.

But the first, and arguably the most important step, is this: The discussion should no longer be accepted under the terms of “should smartphones be regulated”. Reject the very notion. That debate is over. It is clear that smartphones (and the wide Big Tech grift) must necessarily be regulated. The debate is now how should that be done in such a way that has the least amount of trade-offs. It’s not an easy balance. And all sides will make mistakes for sure. But that is the legitimate debate.

Or, alternatively, you can do nothing and guarantee a generation of zombies who will, for sure, make life far worse for nearly everyone else. In fact, such a scenario would be explicitly in my own financial interest, even though I’d hate its toll on my mental health 🤷🏻‍♂️

That’s it, for now.

Who cares who won the Iowa caucuses?

Americans have an obsession with symbolic dates. It’s part of being a young nation. They’ll get over it, eventually. But until that happens (and it won’t happen this century), the Iowa Republican caucuses are a symbol: it’s the official date that marks the start of the election season.

It’s not even an old tradition. It dates as far back into pre-history as… 1996. Prior to 1996, there were other states and other primaries (and not always Republican) that would hold the first primary election. In fact, prior to 1972, the whole primary process wasn’t heavily publicized and it involved a lot more basic politicking than now – like having ‘favorite sons’ – which meant State politicians running only in their home state so they can slate their own delegates and act as kingmakers at the Convention.

Somehow, however, it got into the minds of political observers in the US and abroad (!) that the Iowa caucuses are not only significant (they’re not – they decide 1.6% of overall delegates), but that they’re somehow a bellwether. That somehow the candidate that wins the Iowa caucuses takes a relevant lead in the overall competition. There’s just one problem: It’s not true.

Statistically, the winner of the Iowa caucus on the Republican side became the nominee in 43% of the cases since the introduction of this system in 1972. Since the Republican Iowa caucuses became the symbol (de jure in 1992, de facto in 1996), the record is even more stark. Here’s the winner of the Iowa Republican Caucus since this contest became a symbol:

  • 1992: Caucus cancelled ❌
  • 1996: Bob Dole ✅
  • 2000: George W. Bush ✅
  • 2004: Caucus cancelled ❌
  • 2008: Ron Paul ❌
  • 2012: Mike Huckabee ❌
  • 2016: Ted Cruz ❌

In other words, it’s been nearly a quarter of a century since these have predicted the nominee and even when they did predict the nominee, it was far from clear at the time that that would be the case. George W. Bush barely beat Steve Forbes in a 5-way race getting 10 delegates out of the 25. And Bob Dole got only 3% more than arch-conservative Pat Buchanan.

As we write these lines, the Iowa Republican Caucus hasn’t even begun and that’s exactly the point: At the end of them we’ll all still be none the wiser on how the primary contest on the GOP side will turn out.

But one thing is certain: After the Super Tuesday or so, there will be at least two, if not three groups of influencers, commentators and other social media personalities that we will all be able to poke fun at.

And while we completely understand those who work in one of the campaigns – and the Sofa salutes all of its political operative friends currently campaigning – we have less understanding for people who aren’t paid by any of the campaigns and yet they approach this issue with so much vigor and so little wisdom. Similarly, while we understand those who placed a bet, we also feel that one’s personal financial interest should be kept separate from evaluating the relevant data (or, in this case, lack thereof).

Over the last 6 months, our mailbox was consistently bombarded with messages about the GOP contest and pressure to predict things, only to then “disappoint” by repeating this: It’s too early. We’ll see what happens.

In other words: No, you have no idea who will be the nominee, anymore than anyone else. Sure, you can pick “team” and stick with it and be lucky. But that doesn’t make you an expert.

The 2024 election season on the GOP side resembles the 2008 and 2012. An old establishment (like it or not, Trump is the GOP establishment now) challenged by relatively low-energy contenders. The only thing special is that there’s two Indians in the race – Nimarata Randhawa (aka Nikki Haley) and Vivek Ramaswamy, whose policies are great, but whose name not even his supporters can spell correctly in one fell swoop.

Democrats aren’t any better. Their top contender is also an establishmentarian octogenarian who is not liked anymore even by his party. And a presumed VP, Kamala Harris, who in 2020 got 1% among the Democrats in California.

The 2024 election season in the US is not, and will not be energetic and exciting like the 2008, 2012 and 2016. There’s no-one to drive energy. There’s no contemporary Obama, or Ros Perot, or even a Ron Paul for entertainment. The crazy ticket (RFK Jr.) went independent, Trump of 2024 is boring and unhinged and Biden’s primary challengers raise no reaction. So unless the Democrats decide to pull a surprise (like voting for Dean Philips en masse on March 5),… there is no hope for anything fun.

In addition to Trump and Biden, there’s also Marianne Williamson (D-MN) and Asa Hutchinson (R-AR) in the primaries who are over the age 70. RFK Jr’s 70th birthday is tomorrow, January 17. Out of the 9 candidates in total (3 Democrats, 5 Republicans and one Independent), five of them are aged 70 or older. Did we mention there’s too many old people?

In a competition dominated by old or very old people, of which the presumed top favorites (Biden and Trump) are in increasingly poor health… expecting some excitement is misplaced. Especially before Super Tuesday (which is on March 5, for those who don’t follow American politics that closely).

So the good word from the Sofa is this: Unless you’re a member of one of the campaigns, don’t waste your time with the mudslinging until after the Super Tuesday (assuming it’ll still be worth it by that time).

Oh, and don’t waste your time with the polls either. In late December 2007, all of the “credible” polls maintained a large double-digit advantage for Hillary Clinton to be the next POTUS. Poor Hillary 😂

But no, seriously: Anyone who tells you that he knows now how things will turn out is either crazy, a grifter, or works with that campaign. It’s way too early to even make an educated guess, let alone a sound prediction. And the result of the Iowa Caucuses won’t change that. The Super Tuesday might. Unless we’re headed towards a b0rked Convention. Now THAT would be exciting.

Make of that what you will.

New year’s changes

As announced on Youtube in the first day of 2024, every year between Christmas and into January we take a hard look on how we do things here at Sofa HQ and try to improve when and where it is possible, incrementally, with a view to avoid rocking the boat too much but to also make our work better.

Last year we announced multiple technical changes. Some of them panned out, some not so much. Those that worked are now being built upon while those that didn’t will be shelved and maybe tried again several years from now, at best.

This year’s changes are more in the realm of procedure rather than technical. A procedure is an official and/or established way of doing things. For many things that we do we continue to hold no procedure. This allows for fast adaptability (or agility as the corpo lingo these days calls it). However, as anticipated in years prior, some things can no longer be done without a procedure. Or they can be done but at an increasingly unsustainable cost.

So… without further ado…

Services.freedomalternative.com

The most important change comes by opening up (partially) our secondary server. Throughout 2023 we tested it for various tasks and modified a free version of a ticketing system to suit the needs of our operation.

In 2024 we are opening it up to the public. We don’t know what form it will take after public testing. Maybe excessive abuse will force us to revise this procedure to introduce a log in. Or maybe not.

Still, regardless of how it will evolve, most announcements will no longer be on this website but there. As a virtual “sticky note”. Still public, but not boosted. Only for those interested.

All announcements, including this one next year, will be there. The threshold for “major announcement” that warrants presence here will be raised very high.

No more DMs. Open a ticket!

The year 2023 saw a 200% rise in DMs (mainly on Telegram) on our staff compared to 2022. And in 2020-22 the number of DMS increased by further 300% compared to 2019. This is unsustainable and distracts us from our mission. Not only it has become impossible to reply to everyone, but even attempting to reply to half of the messages is a drain on mental resources. Not to mention that a significant proportion of the messages are repetitive.

As such, throughout 2024 we will work to answer to as few of them as possible and instead direct you to read the FAQ and fix your problems alone. And if that still doesn’t work, then you will be encouraged to open a ticket and wait. The response time will be increased to 72 hours at first and then increased even more.

With the exception of the Donors’ Circle, our DMs should be presumed closed. All tags on Telegram will also be unceremoniously ignored. The three people working closely on this have 400 unread messages or more every day. This cannot go on and will not go on.

Anyone who doesn’t follow the procedure will see his/her request ignored. All tickets whose answer is already available in the FAQ will be instantly closed with prejudice. Same goes with tickets with incomplete information or who don’t follow procedure.

While we understand that some of you prefer e-mail, some of you prefer Telegram, some of you prefer this or that… we are few and you are many. And we’d rather use the time to do the work that we have to do, rather than run around in circles for your messages.

The transition will be slow, but firm. Speaking of which…

FAQ page

The FAQ page right now only contains the really frequently asked questions. The ones that eat 50% or more of our overall time with communications.

In time we will add new questions that tend to be repeated. The objective is to decrease the amount of time spent with communications by at least 90% outside of the Donors’ Circle. While this may sound radical, it is simply a return to the 2019 policy but adapted for the current realities. In 2019 we’d prioritize messages differently but the outcome was quite similar to the objective pursued now.

2024 is already a very busy year. We know we won’t have time for communications. So the next best thing is to equip y’all with the tools to no longer need that much communication. Of course, we mean electronic communication, not in person coffee ☕ . That remains as holy as it has always been.

New wishlist

The old wishlist was, at least in spirit, fulfilled. Also, some of its elements were already pasée. So we came up with a new one – that addresses the production needs in accordance with the current inventory. Please review it and see if you can help.

As always, any funding that doesn’t have an immediate or attached purpose goes towards the inventory, including the Wishlist.

Miscellaneous

Over time we will expand the use of and access to the ticketing system even more – in accordance to our general philosophy of controlling our own data and relying as little as possible on third-party corporations.

Generally, we will continue to strive to avoid contributing cluttering crisis. More than 70% of the people have at least three online accounts that they don’t even remember creating and at least five more that they can no longer access but can’t delete either. Managing online accounts is tedious business and is a drain on people’s mental health. As a result, we will try our best to accommodate those who don’t want more online accounts. This is one of the reason our paywalls are more permissive and have so many side-options.

Of course, this is also because we despise GDPR with a passion and because managing people’s private data is a headache in itself even without the burdensome regulation by the EU.

Speaking of paywalls, we are currently toying with an option to add paywalls to some articles. It is still unclear whether it’s worth the effort. But, should we decide to introduce it, the implementation will resemble the podcast paywall: as wide and as many options as possible and no requirement of signing up with yet another account with this website.

In previous years, we’d dedicate the first three weeks of January for tinkering with the tech and with the procedures. But, this year is busy. So this concludes the bulk of the yearly evaluation. All other minor changes will be announced on Services if need be.

And with that, we’ll get back to the regular work.